Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.
In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
Click here for more PFF tools:
Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings
METHODOLOGY
For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scored for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).
Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.
The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.
QUARTERBACKS
| Pos | Highest % | Player | Team | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| QB | 9.66 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 23.7 | 6,500 | 22.0 | 7,500 |
| QB | 8.22 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 23.5 | 6,900 | 21.8 | 8,100 |
| QB | 7.64 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 21.5 | 6,400 | 20.2 | 7,200 |
| QB | 7.17 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | 23.9 | 8,000 | 22.5 | 8,500 |
| QB | 7.06 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 21.4 | 6,100 | 19.6 | 7,000 |
| QB | 6.52 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 22.5 | 7,100 | 21.1 | 8,000 |
| QB | 6.10 | Tom Brady | TB | 24.5 | 7,400 | 22.7 | 8,400 |
| QB | 4.59 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 22.0 | 6,800 | 20.3 | 7,700 |
| QB | 4.50 | Trey Lance | SF | 9.5 | 5,700 | 9.2 | 6,900 |
| QB | 4.12 | Derek Carr | LV | 21.5 | 6,100 | 20.0 | 7,100 |
| QB | 4.12 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 22.2 | 6,000 | 20.3 | 7,400 |
| QB | 4.06 | Jameis Winston | NO | 15.6 | 5,600 | 14.8 | 7,000 |
| QB | 3.35 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 19.3 | 6,600 | 18.0 | 7,600 |
| QB | 3.29 | Jacoby Brissett | MIA | 16.7 | 5,200 | 15.6 | 6,300 |
| QB | 3.16 | Jared Goff | DET | 18.6 | 5,300 | 17.1 | 7,100 |
| QB | 2.85 | Baker Mayfield | CLV | 20.1 | 5,500 | 18.8 | 6,800 |
| QB | 2.40 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 17.4 | 5,900 | 16.2 | 7,300 |
| QB | 2.33 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 18.3 | 5,800 | 17.0 | 6,500 |
| QB | 2.11 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 15.7 | 5,300 | 14.6 | 6,600 |
| QB | 1.88 | Mac Jones | NE | 19.9 | 5,300 | 18.5 | 6,700 |
| QB | 1.85 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 19.7 | 7,000 | 18.5 | 8,100 |
| QB | 1.82 | Justin Fields | CHI | 18.5 | 5,200 | 17.3 | 6,400 |
| QB | 1.71 | Davis Mills | HST | 14.8 | 4,800 | 13.8 | 6,300 |
| QB | 1.62 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 15.4 | 5,400 | 14.6 | 6,600 |
RUNNING BACKS
Already have a subscription? Log In
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.