DFS Data Dive: The highest fantasy football player ceilings in Week 5 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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DFS Data Dive: The highest fantasy football player ceilings in Week 5

Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass as Cleveland Browns linebacker Jacob Phillips (50) looks to tackle him during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scored for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 9.66 Kirk Cousins MIN 23.7 6,500 22.0 7,500
QB 8.22 Dak Prescott DAL 23.5 6,900 21.8 8,100
QB 7.64 Ryan Tannehill TEN 21.5 6,400 20.2 7,200
QB 7.17 Kyler Murray ARZ 23.9 8,000 22.5 8,500
QB 7.06 Joe Burrow CIN 21.4 6,100 19.6 7,000
QB 6.52 Aaron Rodgers GB 22.5 7,100 21.1 8,000
QB 6.10 Tom Brady TB 24.5 7,400 22.7 8,400
QB 4.59 Justin Herbert LAC 22.0 6,800 20.3 7,700
QB 4.50 Trey Lance SF 9.5 5,700 9.2 6,900
QB 4.12 Derek Carr LV 21.5 6,100 20.0 7,100
QB 4.12 Daniel Jones NYG 22.2 6,000 20.3 7,400
QB 4.06 Jameis Winston NO 15.6 5,600 14.8 7,000
QB 3.35 Sam Darnold CAR 19.3 6,600 18.0 7,600
QB 3.29 Jacoby Brissett MIA 16.7 5,200 15.6 6,300
QB 3.16 Jared Goff DET 18.6 5,300 17.1 7,100
QB 2.85 Baker Mayfield CLV 20.1 5,500 18.8 6,800
QB 2.40 Taylor Heinicke WAS 17.4 5,900 16.2 7,300
QB 2.33 Trevor Lawrence JAX 18.3 5,800 17.0 6,500
QB 2.11 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 15.7 5,300 14.6 6,600
QB 1.88 Mac Jones NE 19.9 5,300 18.5 6,700
QB 1.85 Jalen Hurts PHI 19.7 7,000 18.5 8,100
QB 1.82 Justin Fields CHI 18.5 5,200 17.3 6,400
QB 1.71 Davis Mills HST 14.8 4,800 13.8 6,300
QB 1.62 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 15.4 5,400 14.6 6,600

RUNNING BACKS

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