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DFS data dive: The highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 2

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

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QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
10.7 Derek Carr LV ARZ 20.9 6,200 19.2 7,300
8.9 Matthew Stafford LA ATL 23.7 6,300 22.2 7,600
8.8 Tom Brady TB NO 23.2 6,400 21.3 8,000
6.1 Lamar Jackson BLT MIA 22.3 7,400 20.9 8,200
6.1 Kyler Murray ARZ LV 21.5 7,500 20.3 8,500
5.9 Joe Burrow CIN DAL 23.2 6,600 21.3 7,900
5.9 Russell Wilson DEN HST 20.5 7,200 19.4 7,500
5.5 Carson Wentz WAS DET 19.4 5,800 18.1 7,400
5.4 Matt Ryan IND JAX 18.4 5,500 17.2 6,800
4.8 Trey Lance SF SEA 23.3 5,700 22.0 7,500
4.4 Trevor Lawrence JAX IND 17.6 5,300 16.4 6,900
3.6 Geno Smith SEA SF 15.7 5,100 14.6 6,300
3.3 Marcus Mariota ATL LA 18.1 5,600 16.8 7,300
3.1 Mac Jones NE PIT 16.7 5,200 15.7 6,400
3.0 Jared Goff DET WAS 16.7 5,400 15.7 6,700
2.6 Jameis Winston NO TB 16.5 5,500 15.3 7,200
2.6 Daniel Jones NYG CAR 20.1 5,100 18.8 7,100
2.2 Cooper Rush DAL CIN 20.8 5,000 19.2 6,100
1.9 Jacoby Brissett CLV NYJ 17.6 5,400 16.5 6,600
1.8 Baker Mayfield CAR NYG 15.9 5,300 14.9 7,000
1.6 Joe Flacco NYJ CLV 14.4 5,100 13.5 6,400
1.4 Mitchell Trubisky PIT NE 18.2 5,000 17.0 6,500
1.2 Tua Tagovailoa MIA BLT 18.5 5,600 17.3 6,800
0.8 Davis Mills HST DEN 16.1 5,200 15.0 6,400

RUNNING BACKS

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