- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: The Las Vegas Raiders‘ Derek Carr and Los Angeles Rams‘ Matthew Stafford at quarterback, New York Giants‘ Saquon Barkley and Arizona Cardinals‘ James Conner at running back, Baltimore Ravens‘ Rashod Bateman and Denver Broncos‘ Courtland Sutton at wide receiver, Los Angeles Rams‘ Tyler Higbee and Indianapolis Colts‘ Mo Alie-Cox at tight end, and the Cleveland Browns in addition to the New York Giants at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 2.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
10.7 | Derek Carr | LV | ARZ | 20.9 | 6,200 | 19.2 | 7,300 |
8.9 | Matthew Stafford | LA | ATL | 23.7 | 6,300 | 22.2 | 7,600 |
8.8 | Tom Brady | TB | NO | 23.2 | 6,400 | 21.3 | 8,000 |
6.1 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | MIA | 22.3 | 7,400 | 20.9 | 8,200 |
6.1 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | LV | 21.5 | 7,500 | 20.3 | 8,500 |
5.9 | Joe Burrow | CIN | DAL | 23.2 | 6,600 | 21.3 | 7,900 |
5.9 | Russell Wilson | DEN | HST | 20.5 | 7,200 | 19.4 | 7,500 |
5.5 | Carson Wentz | WAS | DET | 19.4 | 5,800 | 18.1 | 7,400 |
5.4 | Matt Ryan | IND | JAX | 18.4 | 5,500 | 17.2 | 6,800 |
4.8 | Trey Lance | SF | SEA | 23.3 | 5,700 | 22.0 | 7,500 |
4.4 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 17.6 | 5,300 | 16.4 | 6,900 |
3.6 | Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 15.7 | 5,100 | 14.6 | 6,300 |
3.3 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | LA | 18.1 | 5,600 | 16.8 | 7,300 |
3.1 | Mac Jones | NE | PIT | 16.7 | 5,200 | 15.7 | 6,400 |
3.0 | Jared Goff | DET | WAS | 16.7 | 5,400 | 15.7 | 6,700 |
2.6 | Jameis Winston | NO | TB | 16.5 | 5,500 | 15.3 | 7,200 |
2.6 | Daniel Jones | NYG | CAR | 20.1 | 5,100 | 18.8 | 7,100 |
2.2 | Cooper Rush | DAL | CIN | 20.8 | 5,000 | 19.2 | 6,100 |
1.9 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | NYJ | 17.6 | 5,400 | 16.5 | 6,600 |
1.8 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | NYG | 15.9 | 5,300 | 14.9 | 7,000 |
1.6 | Joe Flacco | NYJ | CLV | 14.4 | 5,100 | 13.5 | 6,400 |
1.4 | Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | NE | 18.2 | 5,000 | 17.0 | 6,500 |
1.2 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BLT | 18.5 | 5,600 | 17.3 | 6,800 |
0.8 | Davis Mills | HST | DEN | 16.1 | 5,200 | 15.0 | 6,400 |
RUNNING BACKS
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