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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 7

Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

  • Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
  • Best relative DFS values: Tom Brady and Dak Prescott at quarterback, Jeff Wilson at running back, Rashod Bateman at wide receiver, Hayden Hurst at tight end, Tennessee Titans and the at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 5.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
10.7 Lamar Jackson BLT CLV 22.7 8,000 21.4 8,800
10.2 Justin Herbert LAC SEA 25.5 7,200 23.9 8,100
9.4 Joe Burrow CIN ATL 22.9 6,900 21.4 8,300
8.4 Dak Prescott DAL DET 20.8 6,700 19.4 7,500
8.1 Tom Brady TB CAR 23.5 6,300 21.8 7,400
7.1 Patrick Mahomes KC SF 22.1 7,800 20.7 8,500
5.2 Geno Smith SEA LAC 20.1 5,600 18.5 6,800
4.8 Jimmy Garoppolo SF KC 17.9 5,500 16.7 7,200
4.5 Ryan Tannehill TEN IND 18.3 5,700 17.5 6,700
4.4 Derek Carr LV HST 20.6 5,900 19.1 7,600
3.8 Marcus Mariota ATL CIN 17.8 5,500 16.5 7,100
3.7 Trevor Lawrence JAX NYG 18.5 5,700 17.2 7,200
3.2 Aaron Rodgers GB WAS 20.9 6,000 19.7 7,100
2.6 Jared Goff DET DAL 14.4 5,800 13.5 7,300
2.6 Davis Mills HST LV 17.4 5,000 16.1 6,300
2.5 Taylor Heinicke WAS GB 15.9 5,000 15.0 6,600
2.5 Zach Wilson NYJ DEN 15.0 5,100 14.1 6,600
2.3 Jacoby Brissett CLV BLT 18.1 5,300 16.9 6,500
2.2 Matt Ryan IND TEN 16.7 5,400 15.5 7,300
1.4 Daniel Jones NYG JAX 20.1 5,100 18.9 6,900
1.1 Russell Wilson DEN NYJ 18.1 6,200 17.1 7,000
0.6 P.J. Walker CAR TB 15.8 5,000 14.5 6,200

RUNNING BACKS

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