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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 12

Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) escapes a tackle attempt by New York Giants linebacker Jihad Ward (55) to rush for a touchdown during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
  • Best relative DFS values: Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Kenneth Walker at running back, JuJu Smith-Schuster at wide receiver, Mike Gesicki at tight end and the Kansas City Chiefs defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 12.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.


QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
12.7 Tua Tagovailoa MIA HST 25.5 6,900 23.8 8,300
10.5 Lamar Jackson BLT JAX 23.2 8,000 21.9 8,200
8.7 Joe Burrow CIN TEN 22.9 6,700 21.2 8,600
6.4 Justin Herbert LAC ARZ 20.4 7,000 19.1 7,900
6.3 Geno Smith SEA LV 20.0 6,000 18.8 7,600
5.7 Jimmy Garoppolo SF NO 18.5 5,600 17.4 6,800
5.4 Kyler Murray ARZ LAC 20.2 6,800 19.0 7,800
5.4 Tom Brady TB CLV 22.5 5,800 20.7 7,400
5.4 Derek Carr LV SEA 18.4 5,700 17.1 7,300
5.1 Patrick Mahomes KC LA 24.8 8,200 23.3 9,000
4.6 Ryan Tannehill TEN CIN 18.4 5,400 17.5 7,100
4.3 Trevor Lawrence JAX BLT 18.3 5,500 17.1 6,900
3.2 Marcus Mariota ATL WAS 16.7 5,500 15.8 7,000
3.1 Jacoby Brissett CLV TB 19.1 5,400 17.7 6,900
2.6 Kyle Allen HST MIA 16.8 4,800 15.7 6,100
2.4 Sam Darnold CAR DEN 15.8 4,900 14.9 6,400
2.0 Mike White NYJ CHI 16.9 4,900 15.8 6,200
1.8 Taylor Heinicke WAS ATL 18.1 5,300 17.1 6,500
1.7 Bryce Perkins LA KC 16.0 5,000 15.2 6,600
1.6 Russell Wilson DEN CAR 17.9 5,400 17.0 6,700
1.6 Justin Fields CHI NYJ 17.3 7,400 16.2 8,500
0.3 Andy Dalton NO SF 15.8 5,300 14.9 6,700

RUNNING BACKS

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