Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 11

Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

  • Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
  • Best relative DFS values: The matchup between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Kenyan Drake at running back, Terry McLaurin at wide receiver, Hayden Hurst at tight end and New Orleans Saints at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 11.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.


QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
9.6 Josh Allen BUF CLV 26.6 8,500 25.0 9,200
8.2 Dak Prescott DAL MIN 20.5 6,600 19.0 7,500
8.1 Lamar Jackson BLT CAR 24.7 8,400 23.4 8,400
7.7 Jalen Hurts PHI IND 24.7 8,200 23.2 8,800
6.1 Kirk Cousins MIN DAL 19.2 6,100 17.8 7,600
5.9 Marcus Mariota ATL CHI 21.4 5,500 19.9 7,200
5.4 Daniel Jones NYG DET 21.7 5,700 20.4 7,800
5.4 Joe Burrow CIN PIT 22.0 6,800 20.6 8,300
5.1 Kenny Pickett PIT CIN 17.3 5,300 16.3 6,900
5.1 Matthew Stafford LA NO 18.2 5,500 17.0 6,700
4.8 Justin Fields CHI ATL 20.1 7,600 19.0 8,700
4.2 Jared Goff DET NYG 15.5 5,400 14.6 6,800
4.0 Derek Carr LV DEN 16.4 5,600 15.2 7,000
3.5 Davis Mills HST WAS 17.4 5,200 16.1 6,500
3.3 Russell Wilson DEN LV 18.1 5,800 17.1 6,900
3.0 Zach Wilson NYJ NE 14.3 5,000 13.5 6,700
2.8 Matt Ryan IND PHI 16.3 5,200 15.2 7,100
2.3 Taylor Heinicke WAS HST 18.5 5,300 17.4 6,800
2.3 Jacoby Brissett CLV BUF 15.8 5,400 14.8 6,700
2.0 Mac Jones NE NYJ 15.2 5,100 14.3 6,500
1.7 Andy Dalton NO LA 16.8 5,300 15.8 6,600
0.6 Baker Mayfield CAR BLT 15.3 5,000 14.2 6,400

RUNNING BACKS

Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

You've got the first pick with your finances. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr