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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 10

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) calls a play in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: ​Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
16.1 Patrick Mahomes KC JAX 25.9 7,800 25.9 7,800
9.5 Josh Allen BUF MIN 29.1 8,600 29.1 8,600
9.1 Tua Tagovailoa MIA CLV 20.6 6,700 20.6 6,700
6.6 Derek Carr LV IND 19.5 5,600 19.5 5,600
6.5 Matthew Stafford LA ARZ 20.9 5,600 20.9 5,600
6.2 Jacoby Brissett CLV MIA 18.0 5,400 18.0 5,400
5.2 Daniel Jones NYG HST 20.7 5,700 20.7 5,700
5.1 Justin Fields CHI DET 18.5 6,500 18.5 6,500
4.2 Kirk Cousins MIN BUF 16.9 6,000 16.9 6,000
4.0 Kenny Pickett PIT NO 17.3 5,100 17.3 5,100
3.7 Sam Ehlinger IND LV 17.2 5,000 17.2 5,000
3.6 Davis Mills HST NYG 17.3 5,100 17.3 5,100
3.3 Jared Goff DET CHI 15.6 5,500 15.6 5,500
3.2 Aaron Rodgers GB DAL 19.4 5,800 19.4 5,800
3.2 Dak Prescott DAL GB 18.5 6,600 18.5 6,600
3.1 Kyler Murray ARZ LA 20.3 7,200 20.3 7,200
3.0 Russell Wilson DEN TEN 17.1 5,900 17.1 5,900
2.6 Malik Willis TEN DEN 15.3 5,000 15.3 5,000
1.7 Trevor Lawrence JAX KC 16.6 5,400 16.6 5,400
1.6 Andy Dalton NO PIT 16.7 5,500 16.7 5,500

RUNNING BACKS

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