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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 6

Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) against the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.


QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
12.0 Patrick Mahomes KC BUF 23.1 8,000 21.5 8,600
11.6 Josh Allen BUF KC 26.5 8,200 24.6 9,200
7.9 Tom Brady TB PIT 23.2 6,300 21.3 7,500
7.2 Kyler Murray ARZ SEA 23.8 7,300 22.5 8,300
6.7 Lamar Jackson BLT NYG 23.6 8,100 22.2 8,800
6.2 Matthew Stafford LA CAR 21.4 6,200 20.0 7,200
6.1 Kirk Cousins MIN MIA 19.5 6,000 18.1 7,600
5.4 Aaron Rodgers GB NYJ 21.9 6,100 20.7 7,500
4.5 Geno Smith SEA ARZ 21.2 5,700 19.5 7,400
4.4 Tua Tagovailoa MIA MIN 20.2 5,900 18.8 7,000
3.9 Marcus Mariota ATL SF 19.0 5,300 17.6 6,800
3.5 Jimmy Garoppolo SF ATL 19.1 5,500 17.9 7,100
3.4 Joe Burrow CIN NO 21.4 6,700 19.8 8,000
3.0 Jacoby Brissett CLV NE 18.9 5,400 17.7 6,600
2.9 Jameis Winston NO CIN 17.4 5,400 16.2 7,000
2.7 Brian Hoyer NE CLV 16.2 4,000 15.1 6,300
2.5 Zach Wilson NYJ GB 14.9 5,300 14.0 6,700
2.2 Daniel Jones NYG BLT 20.6 5,200 19.2 6,800
1.8 Matt Ryan IND JAX 17.7 5,300 16.4 6,900
1.5 Trevor Lawrence JAX IND 17.8 5,600 16.6 7,100
1.1 Mitchell Trubisky PIT TB 18.2 5,000 17.0 6,200
1.0 Phillip Walker CAR LA 14.9 4,900 13.7 6,300

RUNNING BACKS

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