- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Tom Brady and Kyler Murray at quarterback, Devin Singletary and Kenneth Walker at running back, Devin Duvernay and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at wide receiver, Dawson Knox at tight end, Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants and the at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 5.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 12.0 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 23.1 | 8,000 | 21.5 | 8,600 |
| 11.6 | Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 26.5 | 8,200 | 24.6 | 9,200 |
| 7.9 | Tom Brady | TB | PIT | 23.2 | 6,300 | 21.3 | 7,500 |
| 7.2 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | SEA | 23.8 | 7,300 | 22.5 | 8,300 |
| 6.7 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | NYG | 23.6 | 8,100 | 22.2 | 8,800 |
| 6.2 | Matthew Stafford | LA | CAR | 21.4 | 6,200 | 20.0 | 7,200 |
| 6.1 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | MIA | 19.5 | 6,000 | 18.1 | 7,600 |
| 5.4 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | NYJ | 21.9 | 6,100 | 20.7 | 7,500 |
| 4.5 | Geno Smith | SEA | ARZ | 21.2 | 5,700 | 19.5 | 7,400 |
| 4.4 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | MIN | 20.2 | 5,900 | 18.8 | 7,000 |
| 3.9 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | SF | 19.0 | 5,300 | 17.6 | 6,800 |
| 3.5 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | ATL | 19.1 | 5,500 | 17.9 | 7,100 |
| 3.4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | NO | 21.4 | 6,700 | 19.8 | 8,000 |
| 3.0 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | NE | 18.9 | 5,400 | 17.7 | 6,600 |
| 2.9 | Jameis Winston | NO | CIN | 17.4 | 5,400 | 16.2 | 7,000 |
| 2.7 | Brian Hoyer | NE | CLV | 16.2 | 4,000 | 15.1 | 6,300 |
| 2.5 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | GB | 14.9 | 5,300 | 14.0 | 6,700 |
| 2.2 | Daniel Jones | NYG | BLT | 20.6 | 5,200 | 19.2 | 6,800 |
| 1.8 | Matt Ryan | IND | JAX | 17.7 | 5,300 | 16.4 | 6,900 |
| 1.5 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 17.8 | 5,600 | 16.6 | 7,100 |
| 1.1 | Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | TB | 18.2 | 5,000 | 17.0 | 6,200 |
| 1.0 | Phillip Walker | CAR | LA | 14.9 | 4,900 | 13.7 | 6,300 |
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