- WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: 6.06, WR34: Sutton’s declining efficiency and increased target competition make him a must-avoid.
- RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: 15.07, RB54: Kamara now profiles as a backup rusher and receiver on the Saints’ roster.
- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
Today’s endless fantasy football cycle allows enthusiastic fantasy managers to begin drafting best ball teams soon after each season’s Super Bowl concludes. Although free agency, the NFL draft, trades and injuries that occur in the offseason, spring and summer create unforeseen variables, avoiding apparently mispriced average draft positions (ADPs) is one way to navigate early drafts. The article below breaks down four players whose Underdog Fantasy ADPs currently make them must-avoid players for the 2026 NFL season.
WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: 6.06, WR34
As detailed previously, “Sutton’s role as a high-volume downfield possession-receiver role helped him outperform his PFF grading in 2025. His underwhelming stable metric performances yield poor grading and suggest a 2026 dropoff is imminent.” The Broncos’ front office acquired former Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-round pick in exchange for first-, third- and fourth-round picks. The significant acquisition package suggests Waddle will be featured as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Waddle’s 84.0 PFF offense grade towers over Sutton’s 73.8 PFF offense grade.
Among 37 NFL wide receivers with at least 95 targets in 2025, Sutton’s 18.9% target rate ranks 30th, and his 1.53 yards per route run (YPRR) ties for 28th. Waddle’s 23.8% target rate ranks 15th, and his 2.19 YPRR ties for 10th.
From March 11th to March 17th, Underdog Fantasy drafters appropriately viewed Sutton as a low-end WR3.
Waddle’s presence should push Sutton down to the volatile WR4/flex territory. Sutton should be avoided in drafts until his ADP adjusts.
WR DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills: 6.04, WR32
The Buffalo Bills acquired former Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore and a fifth-round pick in exchange for a second-round pick, overpaying for an aging, declining player. Moore turns 29 years old in April. Although he will be afforded first-read opportunities and can likely produce positively volatile weeks as a flex option, his 6.04, WR32 ADP makes him an avoid. Moore turned in the lowest-graded campaign among his eight NFL seasons last year, earning a 68.7 PFF offense grade.
Moore’s seat in Chicago was indeed too hot. The 2018 PFWA All-Rookie Team honoree’s key per-play efficiency metrics have declined in consecutive seasons, save for one mild exception, though that data point has ultimately decreased since 2023.
Moore’s per-play declines over the past three seasons:
| DJ Moore Receiving | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 89.5 | 73.3 | 67.9 |
| Target Rate | 22.3% | 20.5% | 14.8% |
| Yards Per Route Run | 2.31 | 1.44 | 1.24 |
| Yards After Contact Per Reception | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.5 |
Moore provides Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who earned an 84.0 PFF passing grade last year, with a steady veteran presence, but Moore himself is unlikely to reliably return WR3 fantasy value.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals: 6.05, WR33
Harrison finished as the Weeks 1-17, 2024 WR32 and as the Weeks 1-17, 2025 WR45. His current 6.05, WR33 ADP is unjustifiably optimistic. He earned a 68.4 PFF offense grade last year after earning a 77.8 PFF offense grade as a rookie.
Harrison’s 67.6 PFF receiving grade ties with Cardinals running back Bam Knight and distantly trails wide receiver Michael Wilson’s 76.4 PFF receiving grade and tight end Trey McBride’s 84.8 PFF receiving grade.
Harrison regressed as a target earner and per-route yardage producer in his second season, dropping from a 21.0% target rate to an 18.8% target rate and 1.63 YPRR to 1.58 YPRR.
Fantasy managers must wait until Harrison drops to the WR4 range before viewing him as a potential upside pick.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: 15.07, RB54
Kamara enters 2026 after losing his prized passing-down role in 2025. New Orleans’ front office signed former Jacksonville Jaguars starting running back Travis Etienne Jr. last week, severely reducing Kamara’s projectable rushing workload as well. Younger running backs available near Kamara’s ADP offer far superior upside and should be targeted instead. Kamara’s 51.7 PFF offense grade is the worst among his nine NFL seasons. Etienne, 27, earned a 74.2 PFF offense grade last year.
Kamara produced two of his three lowest yards after contact per rushing attempt rate over the last three seasons, averaging 2.6 in 2025 and 2.5 in 2023. He averaged 0.78 YPRR last year as well. It falls 0.76 short of his prior career-worst average.
There are far higher upside running backs available near Kamara’s ADP.
ADPs, PFF rushing grades, PFF receiving grades and age among NFL running backs drafted within one round of Kamara’s ADP:
| NFL RB Data | ADP | PFF Rushing Grade | PFF Receiving Grade | Age |
| RB Keaton Mitchell, Los Angeles Chargers | 14.12, RB50 | 60.4 | 53.4 | 24 |
| RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars | 15.01, RB52 | 78.4 | 54.5 | 26 |
| Alvin Kamara | 15.07, RB54 | 61.0 | 39.5 | 30 |
| RB Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15.09, RB55 | 70.9 | 50.3 | 24 |
| RB Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns | 16.05, RB57 | 61.1 | 80.6 | 21 |
| RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers | 16.06, RB58 | 75.4 | 62.5 | 24 |
Retirement is also possible for the long-time Saint.
Kamara should be fully faded at his current ADP.
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