• Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts: Houston and Indianapolis highlight the NFL’s two-game Saturday slate as they vie for a playoff spot.

• Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Ohioan AFC North squads are both incentivized to rest starters, with Cleveland having clinched a playoff spot and Cincinnati eliminated from contention.

• Build your NFL team’s Super Bowl roster: Put your NFL team-building skills to the test with PFF’s NFL Mock Draft Simulator. Craft a Super Bowl roster and share the results on social media using #PFFNFLMockDraft. Start drafting here.

Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes

The 2023 fantasy football re-draft season is in the books, and the PFF fantasy team is shifting its focus to DFS and betting analysis. Here, we break down friendly and unfriendly game environments for FanDuel DFS players and bettors.

Game Environments to Target

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts — 8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday

Indianapolis (9-7) plays host to Houston (9-7) in the NFL’s featured Saturday night showing. The teams make up two-thirds of the AFC South’s three-way first-place tie, ensuring all-out effort levels from start to finish.

FanDuel DFS users and bettors should prioritize offensive weapons across the board, with special attention paid to Houston’s splash-zone passing game, running back Devin Singletary and Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Singletary’s 71.2 PFF overall grade ranks 22nd among 30 NFL running backs with at least 450 offensive snaps, and Pittman’s 80.2 PFF receiving grade ranks 20th among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 375 receiving snaps.

The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 18’s highest. FanDuel implies Houston will score 24.5 points as 1.5-point road favorites. FanDuel implies Indianapolis will score 23.0 points.

Lucas Oil Stadium’s retractable roof should preserve a temperate climate.

Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud impressively keeps the offense moving, consistently and explosively. In 14 games with Stroud under center, Houston’s offense ranks 16th in explosive run play rate (11.6%), 13th in success rate (43.1%), 11th in expected points added per play (-0.005) and third in explosive pass play rate (17.9%).

Indianapolis’ pass defense ranks 22nd in explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.8%) and struggles badly in splash-zone coverage, ranking 23rd in success rate allowed (58.8%) and 24th in catch rate allowed (60.3%).

Indianapolis’ defense recently lost stud safety Julian Blackmon to injured reserve and waived linebacker Shaquille Leonard, but the unit returned nose tackle Grover Stewart from suspension. Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II suffered a back injury in practice last week, jeopardizing his Week 18 availability.

Blackmon’s 72.6 PFF coverage grade ranks 14th among 31 NFL safeties with at least 500 coverage snaps, and Leonard’s 67.7 PFF run-defense grade ranks 28th among 39 NFL linebackers with at least 290 run-defense snaps. Stewart’s 74.1 PFF run-defense grade ranks seventh among 68 NFL interior defenders with at least 195 run-defense snaps, but he infrequently plays on third and fourth downs. Moore’s 69.9 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 14th among 32 NFL cornerbacks with at least 185 slot coverage snaps.

Singletary needs a 1.0% snap share increase and just 84 scrimmage yards to reach two $125,000 bonuses. He has strong odds of achieving both in his lead-rusher and two-minute-drill role.

Indianapolis’ 61 tackles for loss in 10 games with Stewart’s active rank first among NFL teams, but both Blackmon and Leonard are two of the team’s top-six tacklers in run defense, keeping alive Singletary’s hope for run-game productivity. Singletary’s $6,400 FanDuel salary is highly affordable. Bettors should accordingly prioritize touchdown-related prop bets, followed by rushing and receiving.

Stroud’s 91 splash-zone targets rank second among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 such passing attempts and his 94.5 PFF passing grade ranks fifth. Among 42 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash-zone targets, Houston’s No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins’ 94.2 PFF receiving grade ranks fifth and his 16.42 yards per route run ranks eighth. Stroud ($7,700 FanDuel salary) and Collins ($7,800 FanDuel salary) should be stacked in DFS tournaments, and bettors should lean heavily into yardage prop bet overs. Collins was the Texans' only starting wide receiver to practice on Tuesday. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives him an excellent 88.8 receiving matchup advantage rating, Week 18’s third-best mark.

Houston listed its entire starting defensive line on the Week 17 injury report, and only two of those four players took the field, both in a limited capacity. Pittman will have ample time to get open in his intermediate-depth, featured role. Pittman (106 first-read targets) is among just 16 NFL wide receivers to earn 100-plus first-read targets, boasting a top-six 68.9% catch rate.

Houston’s secondary ranks 20th among NFL secondaries in first-read catch rate allowed (63.7%), though it closes on the ball quickly. Pittman secured eight-plus receptions in 10 of 15 games and has a chance to record 10 or more against Houston. His $7,400 FanDuel salary makes for an affordable WR1 and bettors should consider taking the over on his receptions prop.

Houston’s run defense limits explosive plays at the league’s sixth-lowest rate (9.4%) but Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor ($8,600 FanDuel salary) can be employed as a volume-based DFS option with touchdown-based betting intrigue, should No. 2 running back Zack Moss (forearm injury) sit. Taylor’s 69.4 PFF overall grade is tailed closely by Moss’ 66.0 mark.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers — 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday

FanDuel users and bettors should target San Francisco’s run game and Los Angeles’ passing game in this Week 18 divisional showdown. San Francisco has already clinched the No. 1 seed, and Los Angeles is currently jockeying the Green Bay Packers (current No. 7 seed) for the No. 6 seed and the right to play the Detroit Lions (current No. 3 seed) rather than the Dallas Cowboys (current No. 2 seed). Head coach Sean McVay emphatically prioritizes maintaining his starters’ health in the preseason, so if he has the opportunity to preserve his stars in Week 18, FanDuel users should expect McVay to take it, potentially elevating backups to prominent, high-volume roles.

San Francisco is a 3.5-point FanDuel home favorite.

Weather forecasts for San Francisco’s Levi’s Stadium sit in the mid-to-low 50s with single-digit wind speeds.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives San Francisco a 25.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating. The offensive line’s 77.6 PFF run-blocking grade ranks fourth among NFL teams.

San Francisco’s offense ranks ninth in run-play rate (43.9%). The unit averages 5.8 plays per drive, tied for 13th, and both their 43.4% run-play success rate and 0.066 expected points added per run play are top-six figures.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan will feature Nos. 2 and 3 running backs Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason against a Los Angeles defensive front likely missing stud nose tackle Bobby Brown III, who aggravated his early-season knee injury.

Mitchell (5-foot-10, 200 pounds) is the nominal next player up. However, Shanahan could opt to preserve Mitchell for the playoffs by elevating Mason (5-foot-11, 223 pounds) to the starting role.

The table below provides player-specific DFS and betting suggestions while ranking in parentheses Mitchell's and Mason’s rushing data among 81 NFL running backs with at least 30 rushing attempts.

Bettors should closely monitor Mason’s anytime touchdown odds. The second-year rusher turned five red-zone rushing attempts into two touchdowns and one first down. Among 82 NFL running backs with at least five red-zone rushing attempts, Mason’s 75.5 PFF red-zone rushing grade ranks eighth. Mason is a high-leverage RB2. Mitchell profiles as Week 18 chalk play, if named the starter.

Brown's likely absence is significant, particularly at the goal line. His early-season knee injury resulted in an injured reserve stint in Weeks 6-10.

The table below compares the Rams' run-defense data in Weeks 1-5 and 11-16 with their run-defense data in Weeks 6-10.

Los Angeles runs 65.9 offensive plays per game, the sixth most, and McVay’s well-designed passing game results in the league’s highest first-read target rate to wide receivers and tight ends, 81.2%.

The 49ers suffered their third safety injury last week, reducing the unit to two active players including in-season signee Logan Ryan, whose 58.2 PFF coverage grade ranks sixth among six 2023 49ers safeties. The secondary also lost primary perimeter cornerback backup Ambry Thomas (broken hand) in Week 16. His 68.7 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 29th among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 295 perimeter-coverage snaps.

The Rams' passing-game starters are high-upside Week 18 DFS options, but No. 4 wide receiver/field stetcher Tutu Atwell could see a featured role if McVay plays things safely.

San Francisco’s defensive injuries directly benefit Atwell and his 22.6% deep target rate, which ranks 17th among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 375 receiving snaps. Atwell's 65.5 PFF receiving grade ties for 50th. Los Angeles’ breakout rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua is 29 receiving yards and four receptions shy of two rookie receiving records and may resultingly challenge Atwell for targets early in the game. Among qualifying NFL wide receivers, Nacua’s 85.9 PFF receiving grade ranks 11th.

Rookie tight end Davis Allen is a long-shot DFS and prop-bet option whose 66.7 PFF receiving grade ranks first among Rams tight ends. His 10.2 yards after the catch per reception ranks first among NFL linebackers with at least seven targets and 50 receiving snaps. San Francisco may rest Oren Burks (81.5 PFF coverage grade, ninth among linebackers), who is rehabilitating a multi-week knee injury.

Running back Royce Freeman’s 72.5 PFF overall grade ranks second among Los Angeles running backs. He is the best bet to handle a full-time featured role if the backups take over.

Game Environments to Avoid

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals — 1 p.m. ET, Sunday

Cleveland (11-5) travels to Cincinnati’s (8-8) roofless Paycor Stadium for a cold and potentially wet Week 18 game lacking playoff implications. The Baltimore Ravens (13-3) clinched the No. 1 seed, so Cleveland reportedly plans to rest for a surprise Super Bowl run. FanDuel DFS users and bettors should largely avoid both Cleveland and Cincinnati players, save for two backup running backs.

The game’s 38.5-point over/under is Week 18’s fourth lowest. FanDuel implies Cleveland and Cincinnati will score 17.0 and 21.5 points, respectively.

The Browns' defense frequently generates turnovers, reducing the opponent’s ability to score and increasing possession time for the offense. The offense runs 70.8 offensive plays per game — the top mark among NFL teams — and the defense ranks first in both success rate (35.2%) and EPA allowed per play (-0.226), in the top two in both pass-rush win rate (63.2%) and pass-rush productivity (32.6) and third in both interception rate (3.7%) and total interceptions (17).

Since undergoing a quarterback change in Week 11, Cincinnati’s offense ties for 22nd in plays per game (61.6). Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the bottom four in both success rate allowed (45.4%) and EPA allowed per play (0.035). The unit also ranks 18th in pass-rush win rate (43.3%). All factors point toward the Browns operating as they normally would.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cincinnati a -75.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 18’s worst. Their 4.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating provides head coach Zac Taylor the path of least resistance. Cleveland likewise received respective -11.0% and 8.0% matchup advantage ratings.

The Bengals are 4.5-point home favorites, which bodes positively for rookie running back Chase Brown, whose 68.7 PFF overall grade closely trails starting running back Joe Mixon’s 69.2 mark. Brown’s 90.2 PFF receiving grade ranks first among 70 NFL running backs with at least 30 receiving snaps and 12 targets. Cleveland’s 74 missed run-defense tackles tie for the seventh most. Brown’s FanDuel salary is just $4,900, and Cleveland allows explosive pass plays to opposing running backs at the league’s 15th-highest rate, 9.0%. Bettors should focus on Brown’s receiving-related prop bets.

The team is incentivized to sit Mixon rather than risk activating injury-related contract clauses. Cincinnati's historical willingness to save money via Mixon further supports this. He is reportedly the first Bengal to ever accept a restructured contract. The team can save $5.75 million by cutting him pre-June 1.

Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski announced Wednesday that quarterback Jeff Driskel will make his 2023 debut as the Week 18 starter. Among 68 quarterbacks with at least 20 passing attempts in 2022, Driskel’s 62.0 PFF passing grade ranked 41st. The frequent scrambler and moderately errant passer is unlikely to provide rookie wide receiver Cedric Tillman with satisfactory play. Tillman’s 55.2 PFF receiving grade ranks 22nd among 27 rookie wide receivers with at least 100 receiving snaps. 

Cleveland No. 3 running back Pierre Strong Jr.’s mediocre skill set is highlighted by his 62.3 PFF rushing grade. Strong is a volume-based, DFS punt play with an easily affordable $4,600 FanDuel salary. Cincinnati’s run defense ranks dead in average depth of tackle (4.71 yards). Bettors should monitor Strong’s rushing-based over/under and his anytime touchdown-scoring odds.

Bengals quarterback Jake Browning will struggle to move the ball with his top wide receivers likely resting. Browning’s 71.1 PFF passing grade ranks 21st among 42 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks. Rookie wide receiver Andrei Iosivas’ 60.9 PFF receiving grade ranks 14th among 27 NFL rookie wide receivers with at least 100 receiving snaps. He could receive a full-game audition in an admittedly subpar setting.