Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season is right around the corner, which means it is time to utilize PFF’s DFS projected rostership and strength of schedule tools to project the best and worst DFS plays of the week.
There are many intriguing options this week, including running back Jonathan Taylor, who is due for positive regression and has tournament-winning upside. If you're looking for the best DFS stacks of the week, look no further than the Washington Football Team.
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Quarterback
Best: Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team
DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,400
Heinicke likely isn't anybody’s idea of a star quarterback, but he has scored the 17th-most fantasy points (54.2) and has averaged the 12th-most points per dropback (0.55) since Week 1. An efficient, big-play threat, he gets a tremendous matchup this week in the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through three weeks.
Worst: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500
Tannehill is currently the QB14, but he has not yet managed to match the production from his elite 2020 campaign. Bad luck has struck the Titans recently, as A.J. Brown (week-to-week) and Julio Jones (day-to-day) could be sidelined for Week 4.
The New York Jets don't present a favorable matchup at the best of times, but this is certainly one to avoid if Tannehill's top two pass-catchers miss out. Spend the salary elsewhere.
Running Back
Best: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
DK: $6,300 | FD: $6,600
We expected more out of Taylor than his current RB28 ranking. As it stands, he’s not even an RB2 and is hardly in the high-end tier of RB3.
The Colts running back has been somewhat unlucky through three weeks, as he is tied for the most rushing attempts in the red zone (13) and inside the five-yard line (six) but has yet to find the end zone. However, the Miami Dolphins have given up four rushing touchdowns on the season, the second-most among defenses, which makes Taylor a great bet at this position despite the low projected rostership of 9%.
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Fantasy Football: Week 4 Snaps & Efficiency Report for all 32 NFL backfields via Ian Hartitz
Worst: Ty’Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens
DK: $5,200 | FD: $5,700
Williams was a fun DFS and fantasy football option for about a week, but his days as the workhorse back in Baltimore appear to be halted.
The second-year back played only 29 snaps (51% snap share) last week and was outworked by teammate Latavius Murray seven touches to six. The Ravens are resolute on their committee approach, and up next on the docket is a dreaded Denver Broncos defense that has yet to allow a single rushing touchdown in 2021.
Wide Receiver
Best: Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos
DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,100
Denver has now lost two starting wide receivers to long-term injuries, which could mean a potentially major uptick in Patrick's production and opportunity share. Through Week 3, the fifth-year wide receiver ranks second among Broncos pass-catchers in targets (13) yet has racked up the most fantasy points (41.4).
Expect to see his 21.7% target share from Week 3 hold steady, which is good news against a Baltimore Ravens’ secondary that has conceded the third-most passing yards (995) this season.
Worst: DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
DK: $7,700 | FD: $7,600
Hopkins is an absolute must-start in all fantasy football leagues and formats, but he won’t provide the best bang-for-your-buck in terms of DFS salary this week. In his two games against Jalen Ramsey last season, Hopkins totaled 19.2 and 7.5 PPR points, and even the strong performance stemmed from garbage-time production.
Ramsey presents a difficult matchup for any receiver in the league. And this may be hard to believe, but Hopkins also ranks fourth in targets on the Cardinals’ roster.
Tight End
Best: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team
DK: $4,900 | FD: $5,800
The Heinicke-Thomas pairing is my favorite stack of the week, in large part because Atlanta has already been beaten for 174 receiving yards and three touchdowns by opposing tight ends this season.
Heinicke is clearly comfortable looking Thomas' way in the passing game, as evidenced by the big tight end's 16.3% target share. Thomas has also racked up the sixth-most fantasy points at the position (35.7) and should be able to take advantage of a Falcons defense that can best be described as an absolute sieve this year.
Worst: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,500
Gronk’s triumphant return to New England may well have a storybook ending, but the matchup suggests we should avoid the veteran in Week 4. Not only is he banged up from the injury he sustained in Week 3, but Gronk also has an individual matchup with Patriots safety Kyle Dugger, who is in his own stratosphere as a tight end eraser. Through three weeks, he’s allowed the fewest fantasy points (0.04) and receiving yards (0.16) per coverage snap among all players on PFF’s TE matchup chart.
Defense/Special Teams
Best: Los Angeles Rams D/ST
DK: $3,600 | FD: $3,800
The Rams may not seem like a tremendous play this week, given that they have the herculean task of stopping the Cardinals’ offense, but they’ve had a ton of success against this offense in past years and are coming off a dominant performance against the Buccaneers from just a week ago. Last season, the Rams defense scored 11 and 19 points against the Cardinals in two contests.
Worst: Cleveland Browns D/ST
DK: $3,000 | FD: $4,400
The Browns field the 12th-highest scoring defense in fantasy football this season, but their matchup against the red-hot Minnesota Vikings is not favorable. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has yet to throw an interception; he has been sacked only six times and has led an offense that ranks seventh in offensive scoring (touchdowns and field goals). This will likely be a high-scoring affair, so steer clear of this promising defense this week.
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