With almost all sporting events on hiatus for the foreseeable future, betting markets have shifted their focus to futures and prop markets to whet the appetite of sports bettors. Because of this, we have an early selection of NFL Draft props, and we have all the time in the world to analyze them.
The PFF Forecast Forefathers have handed over the reins, entrusting me to build off an impressive 2019 performance that went 3-0 on draft selections for +4.3 units. The NFL already has a plan in place to host the NFL Draft in a remote environment, which ensures that we won’t have more bets canceled or tied up in limbo, so let’s dive right into some early betting value on one of the only opportunities that we may have to bet for quite some time.
[Editor's note: Available to all of PFF's EDGE and ELITE subscribers, PFF's 2020 NFL Draft Guide consists of over 1,000 pages loaded with background information, analysis, advanced statistics, grades, round projections, player comparisons, Combine data, Senior Bowl grades and more!]
HENRY RUGGS III — DRAFT POSITION UNDER 15.5 (+108)
Henry Ruggs III has reset the bar for one of the strongest wide receiver draft classes we have ever seen. His 4.27-second 40-yard dash is the type of time that NFL scouts salivate over, but he still gets knocked for the same blemishes as other burners who flew up draft boards in prior draft seasons.
His market share was less than impressive for Alabama, but he was competing for targets with at least two (if not three) other first-round wide receiver prospects. His PFF college receiving grade was never above 75.0 for a season, and he was never the de facto 1A receiving option in his college offense.
But he can flat-out fly, and nothing else causes receivers to rise up draft boards like that one fact. Over half of his receptions resulted in an explosive play (a gain of 15 or more yards) in 2019, and he comes ready to produce NFL-level production as over 80% of his college offensive snaps came from out wide.
Being selected in the top half of the first round feels like a gimme for the fastest player at this year's NFL Scouting Combine. The PFF’s analytics mock draft had him going fourth overall, and at long odds, I don’t hate sprinkling in him being the New York Giants‘ pick at fourth overall along with some first-wide-receiver-off-the-board odds, as well.