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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 5

Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) calls a play at the line against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.


QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
11.4 Josh Allen BUF PIT 27.3 8,200 25.5 9,000
11.1 Tom Brady TB ATL 24.2 6,000 22.4 7,800
9.7 Jalen Hurts PHI ARZ 26.7 8,100 24.8 8,600
7.9 Teddy Bridgewater MIA NYJ 20.7 5,400 19.6 6,400
6.4 Kirk Cousins MIN CHI 21.4 6,300 19.8 7,100
6.0 Jameis Winston NO SEA 20.1 5,500 18.8 7,300
5.3 Justin Herbert LAC CLV 20.0 7,100 18.7 8,200
4.6 Justin Fields CHI MIN 16.9 5,300 15.9 6,600
4.2 Kyler Murray ARZ PHI 20.8 7,400 19.7 8,100
4.1 Jacoby Brissett CLV LAC 18.9 5,600 17.7 6,700
3.7 Ryan Tannehill TEN WAS 17.8 5,800 17.0 6,900
3.6 Mac Jones NE DET 18.4 5,200 17.2 6,600
3.5 Matthew Stafford LA DAL 19.8 6,400 18.5 7,400
3.3 Kenny Pickett PIT BUF 15.6 5,100 14.6 6,500
2.9 Marcus Mariota ATL TB 18.0 5,400 16.7 6,800
2.6 Jared Goff DET NE 15.1 6,100 14.2 8,000
2.4 Zach Wilson NYJ MIA 16.9 5,300 15.8 7,200
2.1 Davis Mills HST JAX 16.9 5,000 15.6 6,400
2.1 Trevor Lawrence JAX HST 19.2 5,600 18.0 7,600
2.0 Geno Smith SEA NO 18.4 5,500 17.0 6,900
1.2 Jimmy Garoppolo SF CAR 17.3 5,400 16.3 7,000
1.2 Cooper Rush DAL LA 17.1 5,400 15.9 6,500
0.9 Carson Wentz WAS TEN 17.5 5,700 16.3 6,800
0.7 Baker Mayfield CAR SF 13.9 5,100 13.0 6,400

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