- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Jeff Wilson and James Conner at running back, rookies Christian Kirk and Amari Cooper at wide receiver, Juwan Johnson at tight end, and the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 5.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 11.4 | Josh Allen | BUF | PIT | 27.3 | 8,200 | 25.5 | 9,000 |
| 11.1 | Tom Brady | TB | ATL | 24.2 | 6,000 | 22.4 | 7,800 |
| 9.7 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | ARZ | 26.7 | 8,100 | 24.8 | 8,600 |
| 7.9 | Teddy Bridgewater | MIA | NYJ | 20.7 | 5,400 | 19.6 | 6,400 |
| 6.4 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 21.4 | 6,300 | 19.8 | 7,100 |
| 6.0 | Jameis Winston | NO | SEA | 20.1 | 5,500 | 18.8 | 7,300 |
| 5.3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | CLV | 20.0 | 7,100 | 18.7 | 8,200 |
| 4.6 | Justin Fields | CHI | MIN | 16.9 | 5,300 | 15.9 | 6,600 |
| 4.2 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | PHI | 20.8 | 7,400 | 19.7 | 8,100 |
| 4.1 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | LAC | 18.9 | 5,600 | 17.7 | 6,700 |
| 3.7 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | WAS | 17.8 | 5,800 | 17.0 | 6,900 |
| 3.6 | Mac Jones | NE | DET | 18.4 | 5,200 | 17.2 | 6,600 |
| 3.5 | Matthew Stafford | LA | DAL | 19.8 | 6,400 | 18.5 | 7,400 |
| 3.3 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | BUF | 15.6 | 5,100 | 14.6 | 6,500 |
| 2.9 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | TB | 18.0 | 5,400 | 16.7 | 6,800 |
| 2.6 | Jared Goff | DET | NE | 15.1 | 6,100 | 14.2 | 8,000 |
| 2.4 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | MIA | 16.9 | 5,300 | 15.8 | 7,200 |
| 2.1 | Davis Mills | HST | JAX | 16.9 | 5,000 | 15.6 | 6,400 |
| 2.1 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HST | 19.2 | 5,600 | 18.0 | 7,600 |
| 2.0 | Geno Smith | SEA | NO | 18.4 | 5,500 | 17.0 | 6,900 |
| 1.2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | CAR | 17.3 | 5,400 | 16.3 | 7,000 |
| 1.2 | Cooper Rush | DAL | LA | 17.1 | 5,400 | 15.9 | 6,500 |
| 0.9 | Carson Wentz | WAS | TEN | 17.5 | 5,700 | 16.3 | 6,800 |
| 0.7 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | SF | 13.9 | 5,100 | 13.0 | 6,400 |
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