- Georgia takes on Florida: Saturday’s game in Jacksonville features a top-17 contest with big playoff implications.
- Arizona looks for the upset at Texas Tech: A win would give the Wildcats a fast track in an open Big 12 race.
- Can USC keep its season alive against Ohio State?: The Trojans are reeling after a crushing Week 8 loss but face a Buckeyes team without Julian Sayin.
The trend of upsets continued in Week 8 of the college football season. UCF stunned then-No. 2 BYU in Orlando; Texas kept its College Football Playoff hopes intact by rebounding against Ole Miss; and South Carolina topped Tennessee in a wild finish.
Will more chaos ensue in Week 9? The stage is certainly set, with some excellent matchups set to grace the screen on Saturday. Below are the top storylines and angles to watch in the five best games of the weekend.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 17 Florida (Atlanta, 3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: The biggest World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in years
Georgia and Florida are archrivals who meet every year in a rivalry dubbed “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” due to the massive tailgating scene it provides. For the first time in 31 years, this game will be held outside of Jacksonville, Florida as EverBank Stadium is undergoing major renovations. Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium will host this year’s game.
It’s also the first time in six years that both the Bulldogs and Gators are ranked going into this game. This is Georgia’s first contest since its upset loss to Auburn at home, while Florida is off to an impressive 5-2 start under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall. A loss for the Gators all but eliminates them from playoff contention.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Can Gunner Stockton consistently win down the field?
Last season, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton was one of the most conservative passers in college football. His average depth of target of 7.3 yards was the 13th-lowest in the country.
While Stockton’s average depth of target has increased to 8.5 yards this year (65th-lowest), the Bulldogs’ offense is still very much predicated on screen passes. A total of 32.9% of Stockton’s attempts this year have come behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the Power Four.
Florida’s defense has been outstanding at defending those screen passes this year, permitting the 11th-fewest yards per attempt on passes behind the line of scrimmage (3.46). But the Gators have been far more susceptible to throws down the field. On throws of 20 air yards or more, Florida is just 100th in yards per attempt allowed (13.54).
While a large number of Stockton’s attempts still come on screens, he has been excellent when asked to throw deep. His 48.1% deep completion rate and 17.3 yards per attempt on deep throws are each 22nd in the nation. Stockton will likely need to be that efficient down the field in this game.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Dalton): Will Florida resurrect its formerly elite ground game?
The catalyst to Florida’s 4-0 start to the season was its elite run game. During that stretch, the Gators averaged over 262 rushing yards per game, sacks excluded, while gaining 6.1 yards per carry.
In the three games since, that production has come to a screeching halt. Since Week 5, the Gators are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry while recording an explosive run just 10.8% of the time. Both of those marks rank outside the top 100 FBS teams in that span.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s perennially elite run defense has also stumbled of late. Over their past two games, including a loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are allowing an uncharacteristic 6.1 yards per carry. That ranks a lowly 124th in the nation since Week 6. Georgia has also yielded an explosive run 20% of the time in that span, which ranks 122nd.
If Georgia can find its footing and keep the Gators from dominating on the ground, particularly early in the game, the Bulldogs should find plenty of defensive success. Their recent stretch of play, however, provides some level of hope for Florida’s offense.
Predictions
Georgia’s run defense shines against Florida’s inconsistent run game, while Gunner Stockton takes advantage of a vulnerable Gators secondary down the field. The Bulldogs win this rivalry for the sixth straight season and likely put an end to Florida’s playoff hopes.
Dalton: Georgia 27, Florida 20
Georgia’s rare defensive struggles don’t typically last long, and Gunner Stockton should be able to find enough room to operate in the passing game provided he is given clean pockets to work with.
No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Two Big 12 contenders jockeying for position in a wide-open race
The Big 12 is one of the most wide-open conferences in the country right now. Utah stands alone at the top as the lone undefeated team, but the race for second is fierce. Four different schools are tied for second place with a 3-1 conference record, including Texas Tech and Arizona.
The Red Raiders are coming off their first loss of the season on the road to unranked Cincinnati, while the Wildcats are riding a five-game win streak after falling to BYU in Week 2.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Noah Fifita vs. Texas Tech’s excellent pass defense
Quarterback Noah Fifita is the heart and soul of Arizona’s team. He’s played outstanding football through the Wildcats’ 6-1 start while leading the team to an average of over 36 points per game. Fifita himself ranks 11th in the nation with an elite 90.1 PFF grade entering Week 9, while his 74% completion rate is the third-best mark in the Power Four. Keep an eye on wide receiver Isaiah Mizell, who has been the team’s top target since fellow pass-catcher Tre Spivey suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5.
Fifita & Co. will have the unenviable task of trying to break through an elite Texas Tech pass defense. The Red Raiders are one of just three squads to rank among the top 15 FBS teams in PFF pass-rush grade and coverage grade. They’ve returned an interception for a touchdown in four straight games. Led by star defensive tackle A.J. Holmes Jr., Texas Tech also boasts arguably the most fearsome interior pass rush in college football, which could cause problems for the diminutive Fifita.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Max): Can Will Hammond find any success against Arizona’s man-heavy defense?
Will Hammond’s first season as Texas Tech’s starting quarterback hasn’t exactly gone to plan. He’s thrown as many interceptions (6) as he has touchdowns, and his 86.7 passer rating is only 102nd in the FBS. This is despite the fact that Texas Tech’s offensive line has afforded him clean pockets all year, allowing the 20th-lowest pressure rate in America (23.1%). Many wonder if it’s time for the Red Raiders to turn to backup Tommy Castellanos, who had extensive starting experience at Florida State and Boston College.
Arizona’s secondary isn’t quite as dominant as it was last year, but the Wildcats have still done a very good job of defending opposing passing attacks. Arizona is currently 25th in the nation in EPA per pass allowed. The Wildcats also run the highest rate of man coverage in the entire country (62%). Hammond’s 63.4 passer rating against man coverage is just 136th in the nation. By comparison, Castellanos’ 47.4 passer rating against man coverage last year was only 147th in the FBS, though his rushing ability could present a problem to Arizona with its secondary’s backs turned to him.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 30, Arizona 24
Arizona has the clear quarterback advantage in this game, but I trust Texas Tech’s defense to hold Fifita in check. The Red Raiders’ run game also finds some advantages against a Wildcats run defense that’s had some trouble this year.
Dalton: Arizona 28, Texas Tech 24
Fifita is red hot, and the Wildcats have just enough balance to get their biggest win of the season over Will Hammond and the struggling Red Raiders offense.
No. 2 Ohio State at USC (7:30 PM ET on NBC)
Storyline to know: Now or never for Lincoln Riley at USC
To say Lincoln Riley has disappointed at USC would be an understatement. He owns just a 14-9 record in Big Ten play since the Trojans made the move to the conference and has yet to bring the program to the College Football Playoff in any of his five years there, despite the vast amount of resources he has.
Riley is in danger of missing the playoff once again this season, as USC has a 6-2 record and was just upset by Wisconsin this past week. In order to make the 12-team field and potentially save his job, Riley must now beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Indiana and No. 7 UCLA while avoiding another upset against Maryland. If he loses any of those four games, the Trojans will most likely miss out on the playoff and may begin searching for their next head coach.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Will Ohio State have any success throwing the ball with a backup quarterback?
Saturday’s game will be the first without star quarterback Julian Sayin for Ohio State, who injured his throwing arm/shoulder in the Buckeyes’ win over Indiana. Head coach Ryan Day said that Sayin is out indefinitely and that the team is planning for him to miss the rest of the season.
Ohio State currently has a quarterback battle to replace Sayin between true freshman Luke Fahey and redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair. While St. Clair is a year older and was a five-star recruit, he was still behind the former three-star in Fahey on the Buckeyes’ depth chart. Fahey was inserted into the Indiana game once Sayin went down and went 0-for-3 in the game. He’s thrown as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns this season during the garbage time he’s played. Meanwhile, St. Clair has completed 5-of-7 pass attempts this season for 52 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception.
Whoever starts for Ohio State has a simple job: Get the ball to No. 4. Jeremiah Smith is the current Heisman Trophy favorite, as he leads all Power Four receivers in receiving yards (984) and touchdowns (12) so far. USC’s defense is just 117th in EPA per pass allowed this year, presenting an opportunity for the Buckeyes to still have success in their passing game without Sayin.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Dalton): Will Jayden Maiava be able to take deep shots against Ohio State’s secondary?
Jayden Maiava’s season got off to a roaring start, in large part due to his production throwing the ball vertically downfield. During his first four starts, Maiava completed eight of his 13 passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. Those attempts accrued 292 yards and five touchdowns while earning him an elite 90.9 PFF passing grade in those situations.
Lately, Maiava has had less success executing deep passes. Over his past four starts, during which the Trojans are 2-2, he has completed just six of his 24 deep attempts for a total of 167 yards. Two of those completions resulted in touchdowns, but he has also thrown three deep interceptions in that span, tied for most in the FBS.
Ohio State has let up an FBS-low three touchdowns on deep passes this season. In total, the Buckeyes have enabled just 8-of-33 deep attempts to be completed, though four of those completions came in their Week 7 win over Indiana.
Predictions
Max: USC 24, Ohio State 21
USC already lost at home to one backup quarterback in Oregon’s Dylan Raiola. If the Trojans drop another against Ohio State, it’s curtains for Lincoln Riley. I’ll take the Trojans to keep their season alive as they have the decided quarterback advantage in this game and are at home.
Dalton: Ohio State 23, USC 20
The Buckeyes overcome their quarterback situation by proving they are more well-rounded than the Trojans’ one-dimensional attack.
No. 6 Utah at Cincinnati (3:45 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Cincinnati ruin another undefeated season in back-to-back weeks?
Cincinnati pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Week 8 by taking down eighth-ranked Texas Tech at home, the latter of which won the Big 12 last season and was undefeated at the time. The Bearcats host the only undefeated Big 12 team remaining this week in sixth-ranked Utah, which is coming off its biggest win of the year over No. 14 Houston.
Cincinnati is off to a 5-2 start this year, and a win on Saturday would firmly establish the Bearcats as a contender in both the Big 12 and College Football Playoff race.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Can Cincinnati contain Utah on the ground?
While Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has excelled as a passer this year, Cincinnati’s focus first and foremost needs to be on slowing down what’s been a dominant Utes’ rushing attack. Utah’s 6.1 yards per carry is ninth in the nation, while its 4.2 yards after contact per attempt is fourth. The headliner is running back Wayshawn Parker, whose 39 forced missed tackles is seventh in the nation while his 507 yards after contact is 10th. But Dampier is also a threat on the ground with the 10th most rushing yards among Power Four quarterbacks (388), and his backup, Byrd Ficklin, has 150 yards himself as the Utes deploy a creative two-quarterback system often.
Cincinnati has struggled to stop opposing ground games this year. The Bearcats are just 105th in EPA per run allowed and 117th in explosive run rate allowed. Cincinnati has also only stacked the box 39 times this year, which is 113th in the nation. But if they do stack the box on Utah, Dampier and the Utes’ passing game is very capable of taking advantage of a susceptible Bearcats’ secondary.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Dalton): Can the Utes slow down Cincinnati’s elite rushing attack?
Cincinnati quietly boasts one of the nation’s elite rushing attacks. Led by star running back Cole Tabb and a terrific offensive line, the Bearcats rank second in the nation, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. They also rank among the top 10 FBS teams with 21 rushing yards per carry and 21 rushing touchdowns. The Bearcats enter Week 9 leading the Power Four with a 22.7% explosive run rate.
Utah’s run defense will be put to the test, but they have played well so far this season. Coming off a performance where they held Houston’s running backs to 59 yards across 22 carries, the Utes currently rank 40th in the nation in team run defense grade. They also rank among the top 40 teams in the nation allowing just 4.1 yards per carry and an 11.7% explosive run rate. If stars like edge defender Ethan Day and linebacker Johnathan Hall can somewhat contain Tabb and the Bearcats’ rushing attack, the Utes can get a road victory.
Predictions
Max: Utah 34, Cincinnati 24
Cincinnati was able to beat Texas Tech because the Red Raiders’ offense was one-dimensional. Utah’s offense is capable of beating the Bearcats either on the ground or through the air. The Utes win on the road and keep their undefeated season alive.
Dalton: Utah 35, Cincinnati 31
This game has shootout potential, and the Bearcats just pulled off a huge upset over Texas Tech. However, Devon Dampier should find a way to expose the Bearcats’ suspect pass defense more than Will Hammond did last week.
Auburn at No. 12 Ole Miss (12:45 PM ET on SEC Network)
Storyline to know: Ole Miss trying to keep its season alive
While Ole Miss is still firmly in the College Football Playoff race at No. 12, the Rebels are on a knife’s edge right now. After losing to Texas this past week, Ole Miss has now been defeated twice this year. No three-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff as an at-large before.
The Rebels look to get back on track at home this week against Auburn, which went on the road and took down No. 3 Georgia a couple of weeks ago.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Dalton): Auburn’s inconsistent run game vs. Ole Miss’ up-and-down run defense
Auburn has had issues attacking vertically downfield with its passing game. More often, it’s been the Tigers’ rushing attack that has been the primary determinant of success this season.
In their four wins, the Tigers averaged 209.2 rushing yards per contest, excluding sacks. In their three losses, they’ve averaged 150.3 rushing yards per game. Interestingly, quarterback Byrum Brown was the team’s leading rusher in all three defeats, but only led the team in rushing yards once in the four victories.
Ole Miss has also gotten inconsistent production from its run defense. In their five victories, the Rebels have allowed 141 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, in their two defeats to Florida and Texas, the Rebels permitted 270 rushing yards per game as well as 36 combined first downs and touchdowns.
As a result, Trinidad Chambliss sat on the sidelines for longer than usual due to the Rebels allowing Florida to possess the ball for nearly 37 minutes and Texas to hold the clock for nearly 35 minutes. The Rebels’ defensive goals should mirror LSU, which jumped out ahead of Auburn and didn’t allow the Tigers to grind out the clock.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Max): Can Trinidad Chambliss carry this offense to victory?
Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy has battled injuries all season, leading to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss having to shoulder the entire weight of the Rebels’ offense. That proved to be too heavy for him this past week against Texas, as he threw a career-high three interceptions and completed just 47.2% of his passes in the loss.
Auburn does have eight interceptions this season (16th), but the Tigers’ pass defense is not nearly as strong as Texas’. Auburn is just 89th in EPA per pass allowed and 87th in successful pass rate. The Tigers run man coverage at a top-25 mark (31.4%), and Chambliss is relatively average against such defenses (66th in passer rating against man).
With Lacy dealing with a shoulder injury, Chambliss will likely need to carry the offensive load once again against Auburn.
Predictions
Chambliss finds holes in Auburn’s struggling secondary and gets Ole Miss back on track with a win.
Dalton: Ole Miss 30, Auburn 23
Things aren’t always pretty for Ole Miss, but Trinidad Chambliss should be able to take advantage of Auburn’s suspect secondary to keep the Rebels’ playoff hopes alive.
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