- Ohio State and Iowa meet in Iowa City: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith take the show on the road against a stingy Hawkeye defense.
- Two star quarterbacks duel in Starkville: Alabama‘s Keelon Russell takes on Mississippi State‘s Kamario Taylor in a battle between elite sophomores.
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Week 4 of the 2026 college football season didn’t disappoint. From Florida upsetting Ole Miss to a top-15 thriller between Texas and Tennessee to Iowa stunning Michigan, the action was nonstop.
This week should be no different, offering three matchups between top-25 teams and plenty of other tantalizing showdowns. Here are PFF’s previews for Week 5's five biggest games.
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: Is Iowa for real?
Over the last decade under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has been consistently very good, but never elite. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Hawkeyes have won somewhere between eight and 10 games every year since 2016. Iowa has regularly been a top-25 team during that stretch, but has never made it to the College Football Playoff.
After a last-second win on the road over No. 18 Michigan in Week 4, there’s hope that the Hawkeyes could crash the 12-team field. ESPN’s College Gameday will be in Iowa City for the first time in 20 years as the Hawkeyes host fifth-ranked Ohio State. As of right now, the Buckeyes are the final ranked opponent left on Iowa’s schedule.
Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Max): Can Iowa establish the run?
Thanks to a dominant offensive line and a great running back in Kamari Moulton, Iowa has had one of the best rushing attacks in America this season. The Hawkeyes are seventh in the FBS in yards per carry (6.8) and sixth in yards before contact per attempt (3.0) this season.
Ohio State’s defensive line has been relatively average at stopping the run, placing 56th in yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.1). Michigan stacked the box against Iowa on 41% of its rushing attempts this past weekend, which led to the Hawkeyes producing their fewest rushing yards in a game since 2024 (65). The Buckeyes would be wise to do the same, especially considering Ohio State’s elite secondary should be able to hold up against Iowa’s passing attack, albeit an improved one with Hank Brown under center.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Dalton): Is Iowa the team that can slow down Jeremiah Smith?
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is off to an otherworldly start to his season. So far, he leads all FBS wide receivers with 617 receiving yards, seven touchdowns and an elite 93.7 PFF receiving grade. Any hope of slowing down Ohio State starts with preventing Smith from taking the game over.
Iowa generally does a good job of limiting explosive plays and ranks 22nd in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. However, the Hawkeyes are coming off a middling performance in which Michigan’s Bryce Underwood racked up 276 passing yards and two touchdowns against them. If the Hawkeyes don’t tighten the screws in the secondary, Smith could be in for another big day.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 30, Iowa 14
Iowa needs to drag this game into a ground-and-pound fistfight to have a chance. Good luck doing that with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith on the other side.
Dalton: Ohio State 24, Iowa 10
Iowa scratched its way to 20 points in a win over Michigan. Even that mediocre offensive output will be tough for the Hawkeyes to match this week.
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Two undefeated SEC teams with red-hot second-year quarterbacks
Both Alabama and Mississippi State enter Saturday’s matchup undefeated. The Crimson Tide have reached the top 10 of the AP poll for the 16th straight season and have a win over a ranked team under their belt in No. 24 Kentucky.
Mississippi State also has a top-25 win over No. 25 Missouri, and the Bulldogs are ranked for the first time in four years. Both schools also feature star sophomore quarterbacks in Keelon Russell (Alabama) and Kamario Taylor (Mississippi State), who each have taken college football by storm this year.
Matchup to watch when Mississippi State has the ball (Max): Kamario Taylor against Alabama’s blitzes
Kamario Taylor has been one of the most electric quarterbacks in college football this season and is the biggest reason for Mississippi State’s 4-0 start. But there’s been a stark difference in how effective he is when he’s blitzed versus when defenses only send four rushers. When blitzed, Taylor is 91st among all quarterbacks with a 57.9% completion rate. When defenses don’t blitz him, that jumps up to 26th at 73.5%.
Alabama currently sends a blitz at the 26th-highest rate in college football (47.1%). Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack is confident in his elite secondary to hold up while the Crimson Tide send extra rushers. Expect Wommack to turn up the heat on Taylor, especially considering how dangerous his deep ball is.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Can Alabama continue its newfound rushing success?
Alabama’s run game last season was dreadful, and that’s probably putting it nicely. However, with the help of star quarterback Keelon Russell, the Crimson Tide seem to be turning things around on the ground. Russell currently averages 8.1 yards per carry, excluding sacks. As a unit, Alabama ranks among the top 25 FBS teams with 13 rushing touchdowns and a 20% explosive run rate this season.
Mississippi State may be up to the task of slowing down the Crimson Tide’s hot ground game. Through Week 4, the Bulldogs rank 24th in yards per carry allowed and have given up just one rushing touchdown so far. They also slot among the top 30 FBS teams in yards after contact per carry allowed and explosive run rate surrendered. While Russell is now the focal point of Alabama’s offense, the Bulldogs will need to be cognizant of the Crimson Tide’s new rushing success.
Predictions
Max: Alabama 33, Mississippi State 24
The Bulldogs’ magical run comes to an end against the Crimson Tide as Keelon Russell outduels Kamario Taylor.
Dalton: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 34
In what could be the game of the week, the Crimson Tide’s balance and run game allow for a close road victory.
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Is Florida back?
Florida has been one of the biggest surprises in college football under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall. After winning just four games last year, the Gators have already matched that win total with their first 4-0 start in seven years. That includes a 52-28 victory over fourth-ranked Ole Miss this past week. Florida is now No. 8 in the most recent AP poll, its highest ranking since 2020.
The Gators look to keep the good times rolling this week on the road against a top-25 team in Missouri, which is coming off a loss to No. 16 Mississippi State this past week.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Max): Can Missouri figure it out on the ground?
Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy was our No. 1 running back in the country entering the season, but he hasn’t been able to play this year after suffering a gunshot wound to his upper leg in May while being a bystander at a concert. Without him, the Tigers’ run game has struggled. Missouri is just 113th in yards per carry (4.4) this season and 103rd in yards after contact per attempt (3.0). Last year, Hardy led the nation with 1,181 yards after contact.
Florida has been relatively average at defending the run this year. The Gators are just 91st in EPA per run allowed and 59th in yards per attempt surrendered. A big reason why Missouri lost last week to Mississippi State was because the Tigers’ offense was too reliant on Austin Simmons to win as a passer. Jamal Roberts & Co. need to do a better job this week against Florida so the Tigers aren’t one-dimensional.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Dalton): Will the Gators continue their red-hot start on the ground?
The story of Florida’s season so far has been its elite rushing attack. Led by star running back Jadan Baugh, the Gators lead the FBS with 18 rushing touchdowns and pace the Power Four with an average time of possession of just over 34 minutes per game. For his part, Baugh tops the nation with 11 rushing touchdowns and 34 missed tackles forced.
The Gators will face a Missouri run defense that has struggled to finish plays on the ground. The Tigers currently rank 118th in yards after contact per carry allowed and 87th in explosive run rate permitted. Most recently, they missed 12 tackles in last week’s loss to Mississippi State. Missouri’s talented linebacker unit, including Robert Woodyard Jr. and Nicholas Rodriguez, will be in the spotlight against Florida’s potent ground attack.
Predictions
The Gators’ explosive offense is too much for Missouri’s one-dimensional offense to keep up with.
Dalton: Florida 35, Missouri 27
Florida’s ability to control tempo should serve the Gators well as they score their third straight SEC victory.
No. 4 Miami (FL) at Clemson (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Clemson puts its hot streak to the test against the ACC’s best
Clemson was embarrassed in Week 1 by LSU, losing 51-10 in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won three straight since then, including two over conference foes in North Carolina and California.
Clemson now hosts the ACC’s best team in fourth-ranked Miami (FL), which sits 17 spots higher than any other ACC team in the latest AP poll.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Max): Is Clemson really going to be this one-dimensional?
To call Clemson’s passing game ugly would be an understatement. The Tigers are the worst team in the Power Four and second-worst in the nation in terms of EPA per pass. Redshirt junior quarterback Christopher Vizzina was benched after two games in favor of a true freshman in Tait Reynolds, who is more of a threat as a runner than he is as a passer. Clemson has been relying on sophomore running back Gideon Davidson for much of its offense, who currently ranks sixth in the ACC with 346 rushing yards.
That ground-and-pound offense likely won’t work too well against the Hurricanes. Miami owns the best defense in the Power Four in terms of EPA per run allowed and is third nationally with three yards per carry permitted. If the Hurricanes force Reynolds and the Tigers into obvious passing downs, it could get ugly.
Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Dalton): Miami’s elite passing attack vs. Clemson’s secondary
Miami boasts perhaps the nation’s premier passing attack as it enters this matchup. Led by quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney, the Hurricanes lead the nation with an 86.4% completion rate and 17 passing touchdowns. They rank second behind Ohio State with 11.0 yards per attempt on the season.
Clemson counters with a coverage unit that has quietly played elite football over the past three weeks. Since Week 2, the Tigers have allowed just 4.8 yards per attempt. They’ve also given up just two touchdowns while intercepting three passes in that span. Star cornerbacks Ashton Hampton and Elliot Washington II will be in the limelight as they try to slow down Mensah & Co.
Predictions
Miami continues to show that it has one of the best passing attacks in America, while Clemson continues to show that it has one of the worst.
Clemson’s defense can keep it in this one, but the quarterback disparity will reveal itself in Miami’s favor by the end of the game.
No. 10 BYU at TCU (7:00 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: BYU looks to prove it’s the best in the Big 12
It’s currently been smooth sailing for BYU this season. The Cougars are 3-0 and have won each game by an average of 28 points. At No. 10 in the latest AP poll, BYU is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12.
The Cougars now have their first road conference game of the season against a TCU side that’s had issues. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 on the year and have lost both of their games against Power Four opponents (North Carolina and UCF). Still, BYU is less than a touchdown favorite going into Saturday.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Max): Can BYU defend Jaden Craig’s deep ball?
After a rough performance against North Carolina in Week 1, Jaden Craig has rediscovered the deep ball that made him one of the best FCS quarterbacks while at Harvard last year. His 501 passing yards on deep throws are the most in college football, as are his 12 big-time throws. Star wide receiver Jordan Dwyer made his debut last week after dealing with a foot injury, and he tallied 100 receiving yards.
But BYU has been one of the best defenses in America when it comes to defending the deep ball. The Cougars have only surrendered a 13.2 passer rating on deep throws, the third-best mark in the entire FBS. Their five yards allowed per attempt on deep passes is seventh in the nation. Stars like cornerback Evan Johnson and safety Faletau Satuala have made it nearly impossible for opposing defenses to burn BYU over the top.
Considering Craig is below-average in the short and intermediate range, it’s paramount that he completes a few deep shots against the Cougars.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Will Bear Bachmeier repeat last year’s stellar performance against the Horned Frogs?
Quarterback Bear Bachmeier proved as a true freshman that he could lead the Cougars to prodigious heights. That was certainly the case when he faced TCU last season. In that matchup, Bachmeier accounted for 355 total yards and two touchdowns. That performance earned him a career-high 91.4 PFF grade in what became an easy win for the Cougars.
TCU’s experienced defense aims to slow Bachmeier down this time around. That unit has allowed just 50 points through its first four games, third-fewest in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs’ 88.2 team defense grade is also a top-30 mark in the nation. Greater success against Bachmeier and his newly developed receiving corps will be needed if the Horned Frogs want to pull off the upset.
Predictions
BYU continues to show that it’s arguably the best team in the Big 12 with a road victory over TCU, which will be spiraling after this loss.
BYU’s balanced approach should serve it well on the road as the Cougars face a struggling Horned Frogs offense.
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