College Football Week 5: Best Bet

New Orleans, LA, USA; Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns wide receiver Errol Rogers Jr. (6) runs against Marshall Thundering Herd during the second half at the 2021 New Orleans Bowl at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

· Bet Louisiana-Lafayette +9 vs. South Alabama (-110 Caesars): Likely defensive struggle should benefit the underdog with a wide spread.

· While the Ragin' Cajuns have been inefficient on offense, the Jaguars have only one 70+ PFF grade — against Nicholls.

• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

We went 2-0 on our two bets for Week 4 in college football. The under 63.5 in Penn State vs Central Michigan was a bit dicey early when Central Michigan kept turning the ball over inside its 30-yard line and allowing Penn State quick scores, but the pace of the game slowed down a lot in the second half, as was highlighted in the preview of the game, keeping the total well under the closing line.

Miami (Ohio) made it three consecutive home losses as the favorite, as Northwestern defeated them 17-14, covering the +7.5 in the process. 

South Alabama @ Louisiana-Lafayette

· A battle of two good defenses: Neither team has allowed an opposing offense a positive EPA per play this season, so it is reasonable to expect a low- scoring affair, which is to the benefit of an underdog with a fairly wide spread.

· Louisiana-Lafayette losers in back-to-back road games as big favorites: Their offense has been inefficient, but South Alabama has not been as brilliant as their points totals suggest, and hidden offensive power — or lack thereof — is where the value lies.

· South Alabama twice has posted a lowly 40% success rate against weaker defenses than the Ragin’ Cajuns: The Jaguars' only 70+ PFF offensive grade came against Nicholls. Louisiana-Lafayette can keep this low and close now back on home turf.

Best Bet: Louisiana-Lafayette +9 (-110 Caesars)

This weekly preview has posted seven bets through Week 4 and has a record of 4-3 for +0.64 units and a +9.09% ROI.

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with


Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit