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College Football Betting 2021: Best Week 4 spread picks

Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler (7) warms up before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021. Lx14071

It was a good time to bet on home teams in Week 3, as college football teams playing on their home field were nearly 59% against the spread. Many of the top teams saw scares as well, with Alabama and Clemson going down to the wire, plus Ohio State and Oklahoma having to fight until the end to secure wins despite each being favored by more than three touchdowns.

We’re learning more and more about these teams each week as the sample size grows. As of now, college football looks much more wide open than it has been in recent years. With Week 3 in the books, here are my biggest edges on Week 4 sides. These are independent from our PFF Greenline picks, but I would always point you in that direction first before trying to find some actionable angles here.

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Oklahoma Sooners -15.5 vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

Projection: Oklahoma -18.7

Is this the week we finally see the Oklahoma team everyone expected to see heading into the year? The Sooners didn't quiet any concerns Saturday when they let Nebraska hang around despite having a sizable advantage in terms of success rate. Oklahoma's biggest issue against the Huskers was allowing big plays in the passing game: Nebraska hit six explosive passes for a total of 191 yards (nearly 32 yards per attempt) against the Sooner defense. The pass rush continued to perform well, however, as it was the fourth-highest-graded unit of the week. 

Related: Best Weekday College Football Bets for Week 4: Spreads, totals & player props via Jason DeLoach

The offense mostly played fine despite just scoring 23 points. The ground game finally came alive after struggling against Tulane, with the duo of Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks combining for 15 missed tackles forced on 29 attempts and 5.5 yards per carry. In the pass game, we saw a big performance from prized recruit Jadon Haselwood, who has battled injuries in his career — he was targeted 10 times, hauling in seven for 77 yards. 

Meanwhile, West Virginia‘s passing game has returned alarming results early on. Against its two FBS opponents, the Mountaineers have not performed well through the air at all.

Opponent PFF Passing Grade EPA/Attempt Big-Time Throws Turnover-Worthy Plays
Maryland 51.0 -0.081 1 2
Virginia Tech 32.1 -0.140 0 3

The offensive line also allowed 19 combined pressures in those two games, which should provide an edge for this vaunted Oklahoma pass rush. The Sooners currently have the highest-graded pass rush in the country and should continue to produce here against this Mountaineer offense. 

Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.

Michigan Wolverines -18.5 vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Projection: Michigan -21.7

Here’s something Wolverine fans have waited for years to read: Michigan’s offense has graded as one of the best in the country so far this season. Michigan blew out out its first three opponents 141-34 and has an offense that ranks fourth in overall grade, second in rushing grade and sixth in EPA per play. Two of the three games have come against MAC teams, but regardless this unit has really impressed early on in 2021.

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