- Utah looks to stay unbeaten against Arizona: Devon Dampier and Noah Fifita battle in a huge Big 12 showdown.
- Texas battles LSU in Death Valley: The Tigers try to pull off the upset and claw their way back into the College Football Playoff field.
Week 10 of the college football slate told us much more about the nation’s best teams. Notre Dame’s upset over Miami (FL) reinforced the Fighting Irish as national title contenders, while Georgia, Utah and Alabama held firm close to the top of the rankings with critical victories.
Week 11 may not be quite as historic in terms of matchup quality, but it still incorporates multiple litmus tests with tons of playoff ramifications. Below is everything you need to know on the five best games this Saturday.
No. 18 USC Trojans at No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: Potential playoff eliminator for both programs
Saturday’s game between USC and Indiana could end up as a College Football Playoff elimination game.
A loss for the Trojans would be their third of the season, and a 9-3 team has never made the field as an at-large before. While a loss for the Hoosiers would only be their second, Indiana doesn’t have any victories over ranked teams and doesn’t play another one for the rest of the season. At 10-2, Indiana could lack the resume to crack the 12-team field.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Max): USC’s offensive line against Indiana’s pass rush
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has been one of the nation’s deadliest operators from a clean pocket this season. His 19 touchdown passes when kept clean are sixth in the FBS, only tossing two interceptions in such situations. Maiava’s 124.3 passer rating from a clean pocket is a top-20 mark in the entire nation.
It’s been a far bigger problem when he’s pressured. In those situations, Maiava’s passer rating drops to 37.4, which is 140th among all quarterbacks. He has just one touchdown and three interceptions when under duress. Maiava’s 36.1% completion rate under pressure is less than half of what it is when he’s kept clean (73%).
Fortunately for him, USC’s offensive line has done an outstanding job at granting Maiava clean pockets to work with. The Trojans’ 23.1% pressure rate allowed is 14th in the country, thanks to stars like left tackle Elijah Paige.
But Indiana has been one of the best teams at getting after the quarterback. The Hoosiers’ 39.9% pressure rate is the sixth-highest in America, while their 9.2% sack rate is seventh. Edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi’s nine sacks are a top-10 mark in the entire country right now.
Whoever wins in the trenches on this side of the ball has an excellent chance at taking home the victory.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Dalton): Can Indiana regain its elite form in the run game?
Indiana’s quarterback situation is suddenly on shaky ground given Josh Hoover’s recently ineffective play and injury issues. The Hoosiers would be wise to lean on Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr., but they have struggled to move the ball on the ground lately as well. Over its past four games, Indiana has averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and scored just two rushing touchdowns. Those marks, along with the team’s 11.3% explosive run rate, all rank outside the top 100 FBS teams in that span.
Meanwhile, USC’s run defense, led by star defensive tackle Jide Abasiri, has quietly gained confidence throughout the season. Despite allowing a season-high 221 rushing yards to Ohio State in Week 9, the Trojans rank among the top 40 run defenses in the nation, permitting just 4.4 yards per carry and an 11.2% explosive run rate. If Abasiri and the Trojans’ front seven are up to the task of stopping the Hoosiers’ run game, they could turn this game into an advantageous quarterback duel.
Predictions
Even with Indiana dealing with a quarterback controversy, the Hoosiers get their signature win at home and all but kill USC’s chances of making its first playoff.
Jayden Maiava and the USC passing game are a very real threat to Indiana, but the Hoosiers continue to ride their balance and grit to a home victory that just about seals their trip to the College Football Playoff.
No. 2 Utah Utes at No. 23 Arizona Wildcats (7:30 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Utah tries to continue its heater against Arizona, which is just trying to stay alive in the Big 12 race
Three weeks ago, Utah was undefeated but was only ranked No. 10 because it hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record to that point. But now, the Utes have built one of the most impressive resumes in the country at 9-0 with victories over No. 14 Houston, Cincinnati and No. 9 BYU. All three have a combined record of 19-8 this season. The Utes are now one of two undefeated teams remaining in college football along with UCLA.
Utah can add another ranked win to its resume this week as it takes on No. 23 Arizona, which is 7-2 on the season. The Wildcats are trying to stay alive in the Big 12 and College Football Playoff races, and a loss on Saturday would kill both of those dreams.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): How limited will Wayshawn Parker be on Saturday, if at all?
Utah running back Wayshawn Parker has been one of the best in college football this season, placing fifth among all running backs in receiving yards (269) while ranking 21st in rushing yards (762). But Parker averaged a season-low 2.6 yards per carry in the win over BYU after appearing to re-injure his left ankle on the opening drive of the game.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Parker is dealing with a bruise and is expected to play Saturday night against Arizona. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier thrived in his absence, accounting for four touchdowns in the win in the Holy War. But the Utes don’t want to make it a habit of relying too much on their star quarterback to carry the offense. Utah can ask the team it just defeated, BYU, about that. The Cougars lost two games with a banged-up star tailback, LJ Martin, which led to Bear Bachmeier shouldering too much of the load offensively.
Arizona’s defense is only 94th in explosive run rate allowed while placing 57th in yards per carry. The Wildcats’ pass defense is far better in yards per pass allowed (29th), so Utah would very much prefer a healthy Parker on Saturday night.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Noah Fifita vs. Utah’s man coverage
The hallmark of Utah’s defense is its aggressive playcalling and feisty man-to-man coverage. The Utes blitz quarterbacks at a top-20 rate in the FBS, but more importantly, the Utes utilize man coverage on 42% of their defensive snaps. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the nation and a big reason they rank fourth in the FBS with 13 interceptions this year.
Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita hasn’t been quite as effective versus man coverage as he has against zone. When facing man coverage, Fifita has recorded a 65.3 PFF passing grade, which pales in comparison to his elite 90.0 PFF passing grade versus zone. Across 99 dropbacks against man coverage, he has thrown eight touchdowns and five interceptions while taking 10 sacks in the process. Fifita will need to be more effective in these situations in order for the Wildcats to pull off the upset.
Predictions
Dampier and Parker carry Utah’s offense on the ground to extend the Utes’ undefeated record to 10-0, while Arizona’s hopes of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game end.
Fifita puts up a fight, but Arizona has consistently struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season, and Devon Dampier once again does enough to get the Utes another victory.
No. 6 Texas Longhorns at No. 21 LSU Tigers (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can LSU stay alive in the CFP race while putting Texas on the brink?
LSU’s loss to Alabama on Saturday was the Tigers’ third of the season. As previously stated, a 9-3 team has never been invited to the College Football Playoff as an at-large before. So, history would say that the Tigers are already eliminated from playoff contention.
But with how crazy this year has been, it seems very possible that a 9-3 team could sneak into the field. LSU has two games in a row against top-10 teams in Texas and Tennessee to try to re-enter itself into the playoff discussion. A loss for Texas would also be its third of the season, leaving the Longhorns on shaky ground themselves.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): An improved Arch Manning against one of the best pass defenses in the country
Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered the season as the favorite to be the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but an inconsistent redshirt junior season has many doubting if he’ll even enter his name into the draft at all. While Manning’s 6% big-time throw rate is a top-30 mark in the country, his 4% turnover-worthy play rate is 120th. However, Manning is coming off his best game of the season in a win over No. 18 Missouri, completing 73% of his passes for 294 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
While Missouri’s defense is top-25 in EPA per pass allowed, it still is far behind LSU’s (4th). The Tigers are sixth in successful pass rate allowed, fifth in pressure rate and 23rd in passer rating allowed. LSU is among the top-three teams in both PFF pass-rush grade and coverage grade. For reference, no other school is in the top 15 in both categories.
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Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Dalton): Will LSU be able to finish drives?
One consistent theme when LSU struggles offensively is its inability to punctuate drives with touchdowns. In their three losses to Ole Miss, Kentucky and Alabama, the Tigers scored just six touchdowns across 13 red-zone trips. There were multiple other possessions in Alabama territory last week that came up short as well. A further dive into the statistics bears out those issues.
Prior to getting to the opponent’s 20-yard line, LSU’s offense ranks 27th in the FBS in yards per play, 14th in EPA per play and fifth in conversion percentage. Once the Tigers enter the red zone, those rankings drop to 60th in yards per play, 97th in EPA per play and 76th in conversion rate. LSU’s task doesn’t get any easier facing a Texas defense that allows the 14th-lowest EPA per play in the FBS in the red zone.
Predictions
LSU keeps its slim playoff hopes alive with a close home victory over Texas, while simultaneously putting the Longhorns’ fate into the playoff committee’s hands.
This game is incredibly unpredictable, as it likely comes down to the turnover margin and who can finish drives with touchdowns. The Longhorns are coming off a better week doing those two things, so I’ll take them to get it done again on the road.
No. 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: One of the biggest games of the year in the ACC
Even after Miami’s loss to Notre Dame, the Hurricanes seem pretty locked into the ACC Championship Game with a perfect 6-0 record in-conference. The other spot in the conference championship game is entirely up for grabs, though.
Wake Forest is in the driver’s seat for that bid with an 8-1 record overall and its only loss coming to Miami (FL). But a loss to SMU on Saturday would open the door for Louisville and the Mustangs, and make it very unlikely that the Demon Deacons make it to either Charlotte or the College Football Playoff.
Matchup to watch when Wake Forest has the ball (Max): How compromised will Gio Lopez’s mobility be?
Wake Forest’s Gio Lopez has been one of college football's best quarterbacks this season. His 121.9 passer rating and 9.5 yards per pass are both top-10 marks in the nation, and he’s thrown only one interception against 18 touchdowns. But he was held out of this past week’s game against Merrimack with a lower-body injury, though head coach Jake Dickert expressed optimism that Lopez could return Saturday.
SMU has had a strong pass defense all season, placing 16th in successful pass rate allowed and 20th in yards per pass given up. While the Mustangs’ secondary is solid, that’s mainly due to their stellar pass rush. SMU is 19th in pressure rate this year (37.1%), thanks in large part to star edge rusher Marques White. His seven sacks are a top-20 mark in the FBS.
That could be a problem for Wake Forest, which is only 119th in pressure rate allowed (37.4%). Lopez has been excellent under pressure, ranking 12th nationally in yards per pass under duress (8.7 yards). But if his mobility is weakened, that could open the door for SMU to pull off an upset.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Dalton): Kevin Jennings vs. Wake Forest’s secondary
Kevin Jennings is having another excellent season for SMU. Through Week 10, Jennings owns a 91.2 PFF passing grade that is tied with Miami’s Darian Mensah for the Power Four lead. He also ranks among the top five FBS quarterbacks with 9.7 yards per attempt, 25 passing touchdowns and an 81.9% adjusted completion rate.
However, Jennings will face his biggest test yet against Wake Forest’s outstanding coverage unit. Through Week 10, the Demon Deacons rank fourth in the FBS with an elite 92.0 team PFF coverage grade. Their 5.8 yards per attempt allowed and 9.1% explosive pass rate surrendered are also top-10 marks in the nation.
One area where Wake Forest excels is preventing deep shots down the field. Its variety of coverages has dissuaded quarterbacks from throwing long: The Demon Deacons have faced just 14 attempts of 20-plus air yards all season, the fewest in the FBS. Their six deep completions allowed are fewer than every FBS team except for Notre Dame and Tennessee.
Predictions
Max: Wake Forest 28, SMU 27
In what should be a duel between two of the best quarterbacks in America, Wake Forest emerges as the victor and puts itself one step closer to the ACC Championship Game.
Dalton: Wake Forest 38, SMU 35
Gio Lopez outduels Kevin Jennings in what could be the game of the year in the ACC.
No. 22 Missouri Tigers at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Georgia continue to look like the best team in America?
Even with a loss to a four-loss Auburn team on its resume, it’s hard not to view Georgia as the best team in college football. The Bulldogs have a win over a current top-10 team in Alabama and are coming off back-to-back demolitions of ranked opponents in No. 17 Florida and No. 10 Ole Miss, essentially putting an end to both of their playoff hopes.
Sitting 22nd in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings Tigers are still 6-3 on the season and will try to at least enter themselves back into the playoff conversation with wins over Georgia and Kentucky over the next two weeks.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): Will Austin Simmons be able to take vertical shots downfield?
The primary difference between Austin Simmons’ performances in wins and losses is his ability to create explosive plays downfield. He’s one of the best vertical passers in the nation, and in Missouri’s six wins, Simmons has completed 40 of his 74 10-plus-yard throws (54%) while throwing 10 touchdowns in those scenarios. In the Tigers’ three losses, Simmons has completed just 24-of-59 10-plus-yard throws (40.7%) and thrown only one touchdown.
Georgia generally does a nice job of preventing opponents from taking advantage of downfield opportunities. When facing 10-plus-yard throws, the Bulldogs have allowed just five touchdowns while reeling in five interceptions. Over their past four games, they’ve permitted just 15-of-35 throws of at least 10 yards to be completed. Simmons will need to find a way to break through this Georgia secondary, which will almost certainly force him to throw the ball underneath.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Gunner Stockton against Missouri’s four-man rush
Georgia’s Gunner Stockton has been the best quarterback against the blitz in the Power Four this year. His 11.0 yards per attempt are tied for the most in the Power Four, while his 141.0 passer rating trails only Miami’s Darian Mensah in the entire country. Stockton can get rid of the ball at lightning speed (2.36 seconds) due to his ability to process the blitz and get the ball quickly to his hot routes.
But when defenses drop back into coverage, he has more issues. His 7.7 yards per attempt are 67th in the FBS, while his 103.3 passer rating is 44th. Stockton’s average time to throw also increases to 2.73 seconds, as he’s not as comfortable working through his progressions.
Missouri blitzes at the fifth-lowest rate in the entire nation (21.4%), as the Tigers are very content to sit back in coverage. But Missouri is also just 100th in pressure rate because of its low blitz rate, while Georgia’s pass protection has been elite with a 24.5% pressure rate allowed (20th). The Tigers need to get home with their standard rush, because if they don’t, Stockton has proven to be one of the best quarterbacks from a clean pocket. Even if defensive coordinator Corey Batoon decides to send more blitzes, Stockton is elite at beating that too.
Predictions
Georgia continues to look like the best team in the country with another dominant win over a quality SEC team.
Dalton: Georgia 31, Missouri 17
Georgia may be the best team in the nation, while Missouri has proven time and again that it has an extremely hard time winning big games like this. The Bulldogs take care of business.
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