Last week's weekday slate came within a single point of a clean sweep of the board. Instead, we will have to settle for a 3-0-1 record on the slate. The weekday slate was also a great example of why getting picks in early will provide the most value possible. Some of those wins would have turned to losses based on lines later in the week.
We have a couple more weekday games this week to try and find more value. As a reminder, I use my own model to create these projections, and they’re independent of PFF’s Greenline Tool. I highly suggest using my projections in conjunction with PFF Greenline in order to give yourself more information.
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Clemson Tigers (-13) VS. Syracuse Orange
Pick: Clemson -13
Projection: Clemson -14.1
Pick: 45.5
Cover Probability: 56.2%
Coming into this season, we expected Clemson’s offense to take a step back given they were losing both Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. I don’t think anyone expected them to regress to the 99th-graded offense (67.1). QB DJ Uiagalelei has been at the forefront of the criticism, ranking 56th out of 64 qualifying QBs in the Power 5 (59.2).
He will get a chance to turn the season around for the Tigers' offense against a Syracuse defense that has been slowly regressing throughout the season. After starting the season strong against Ohio, Rutgers and Albany, the Orangemen have struggled defensively as they start ACC Play. Syracuse has given up 33 and 40 points to Florida State and Wake Forest, respectively, and that includes a putrid 48.6 coverage grade against the Demon Deacons.
Offensively, Syracuse ranks 10th in the country in rushing grade (89.4). If they can keep this game close enough to utilize the rushing game, this game will breeze over this 45.5 point total. Ultimately, Clemson is coming off a bye week and is still the stronger team. The Tigers will be eager to show the country they’re still a powerhouse football team.
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