November is a special month. It brings us cold weather, the holiday season (for those who celebrate) and MACtion weekday games. Some may overlook weekday games because of lack of interest or big name teams, but there is still plenty of betting value to go around each week.
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For those who might be new to my weekly articles, I use my own model’s projections for these weekday picks. PFF Greenline is another fantastic resource to use. Aside from projections, Greenline also tells you which bets will offer maximum value, along with a quick look at some key stats for each matchup. I highly recommend giving it a look while you make your bets this weekend.
Ohio Bobcats VS. Eastern Michigan Eagles (-7)
Pick: Eastern Michigan -7
Projection: Eastern Michigan -8.3
It has been a rather woeful year for the Ohio Bobcats, who enter this Tuesday night contest at 2-7. Offensively, they rank slightly below average at 74th in overall PFF offensive grade (74.3), including a very elite passing performance against Duquesne (89.6 passing grade). The Bobcat defense has been nothing short of awful this year, ranking 123rd in run defense (46.2) and 114th overall (59.0).
They draw the Eastern Michigan Eagles, who enter the contest at an impressive 6-3. The Eagles have been excellent on offense this season, ranking 36th overall in PFF grade (81.4), including a 82.6 passing grade, which is good for 22nd in the nation. The line for this has opened around 7-8 points, so you should check your book or find a book where you can get this game at -7. My model projects Eastern Michigan to win and cover at -7 easily, but you start to lose value as the spread grows.
PFF's Power Rankings Tool offers projections based on 10,000 season simulations given Team Point Spread Ratings, Strength of Schedule and team records.