As we approach the home stretch of the 2021 college football season, we will start to see more weekday games. This gives us even more opportunities to find betting value and start our week off in the right direction. As a reminder: It is imperative to try to get these picks in as quickly as possible before the lines move.
My projections come from my own personal model, which is still hanging around 53% ATS this season. They’re independent of PFF Greenline, which is a great betting tool to use alongside my projections.
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Northern Illinois Huskies VS. Kent State Golden Flashes (-4.5)
Pick: Kent State -4.5
Projection: Kent State -5.3
Northern Illinois is currently 6-2 on the season, but the record can be a bit deceiving. They have five wins in games decided by one score or less, including last week when they were saved by a botched snap on a game-winning field goal attempt. Overall they grade out 102nd in the nation (72.7). The strength of the Huskies offenses is in their running game, where they rank a little above average at 55th in the nation in rushing grade (81.4). Their offense will have to step up in order to keep up with this Kent State offense.
The Golden Flashes grade out 40th in the nation in overall offensive grade (79.4). Similar to their opponent this game, Kent State has been nothing but elite in the running game, grading out eighth in the nation in rushing grade (90.8). QB Dustin Crum was once thought of as an under-the-radar NFL Draft prospect, but his up and down play this season has washed him out of that conversation. His highs include offensive grades of 88.4 and 84.3 against Buffalo and Western Michigan, respectively. His low game was an overall grade of 48.5 against Texas A&M, but one would forgive him against an elite A&M defense.
Crum will be up against against a Huskies defense that ranks 115th in coverage grade (53.4) and 120th in overall defense (55.5). This is a recipe for a good Crum game, and my model thinks Kent State ultimately wins and covers the spread. Take the Golden Flashes and enjoy some fun offensive football.
PFF's Power Rankings Tool offers projections based on 10,000 season simulations given Team Point Spread Ratings, Strength of Schedule and team records.
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