Buccaneers riding dominant run game to rebound in tight NFC South race

• The Buccaneers are turning back the clock: Tampa Bay became the first team since 1973 to win two straight games attempting 11 or fewer passes in each.

• Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell have each played their part: The pair both rank inside the top 12 in PFF rushing grade, fueling an attack that thrives after contact.

• An unpredictable yet effective scheme: The Buccaneers have found strong results utilizing anything from outside zone to man to counter concepts.

The premise of winning a football game in the modern era without completing a single pass sounds more like a video game challenge than something that could be attempted, let alone completed, in real life. Ask any football player, coach, statistical analyst or even fan, and the pathways to achieving victory with no pass being caught feels almost impossible.

And yet, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off exactly that in their 16-0 victory against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. In Week 8, Tampa became the first team since 1974 to prevail with zero completions — representing a feat so remarkable that it defies fundamental understanding.

In his second game back from a dislocated thumb, quarterback Baker Mayfield dropped back just seven times all day. He threw three passes — one of which was deemed a big-time throw on a gorgeous backshoulder deep ball to rookie Ted Hurst — and another of which was a dropped screen. Consider that the Buccaneers didn’t even call a pass after the 9:37 mark of the third quarter!

Weather almost certainly played a role in Tampa’s offensive game-planning and in-game adjustments; after all, the ball slipped out of Mayfield’s and other players’ hands multiple times. But more importantly, that type of offensive structure underscores a commitment to a dominant running game, which Tampa has continued to establish over the course of the season.

Week 8 was the Buccaneers’ piece de resistance. The team compiled a whopping 324 rushing yards on 56 carries, ripping off 10 explosives and forcing 16 missed tackles. Tailbacks Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell both secured at least a 78.0 PFF rushing grade and averaged no fewer than 4.12 yards after contact per carry.

It’s tough to pinpoint one particular aspect of Tampa’s relentless ground attack, but what specifically stands out is the individual work done by its tandem. Indeed, Irving and Gainwell combined for 229 yards after contact, the second-most by a team in a game this year. That performance comes on the heels of a 222-extra-yard performance in Week 5 as well, which marked the fourth-highest total in 2026.

Putting together this kind of one-dimensional day speaks to not only a genuine commitment, but also indefatigable player efforts. The tough running of Irving and Gainwell, coupled with the team’s blocking and scheme, reinforces what’s become a defining aspect of the Buccaneers’ mid-season resurgence.

Prior to Week 7, Todd Bowles’ team sat 1-5 and on the clear outside looking in of an uninspiring NFC South race. But that Sunday against the Panthers marked the start of an undeterred message: Run the ball, pretty much no matter what.

Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay has rushed 102 times. That number is almost 30 more carries than the Lions in second place, plus the highest two-game mark of any team this season.

The payout of that switch-flipping has been stark. Since Week 7, the Buccaneers are fifth in rushing EPA per play and sixth in success rate. They’ve ripped off 18 explosive carries, the most by any squad in a two-game window since the Bears from Weeks 8-9, 2022.

The broader season sample similarly paints the Buccaneers’ rushing attack as particularly potent with the ball in Irving’s and Gainwell’s hands. Tampa rushers have forced 51 missed tackles, the third-most behind the Lions and Chiefs. On top of that, the Bucs’ 3.7 yards after contact per rush trail just the Falcons.

Among the 38 backs with 55 or more carries, Gainwell and Irving both rank in the top 12 in PFF rushing grade (pending final review of Week 8), the only teammates to accomplish that feat. The pair is also among the seven best running backs in yards after contact per attempt, and each has forced no fewer than 16 missed tackles. Simply put, the Buccaneers have one of the best one-two punches in the sport which wears defenses out over 60 minutes.

Another impressive layer to what that tandem has accomplished is that the Buccaneers’ run-blocking unit hasn’t quite dominated. While Tampa compiled 124 rushing yards before contact against Carolina in Week 7, the team ties for 15^th in overall yards before contact per carry (1.1). Further, the Bucs are 15^th in collective PFF run-blocking grade, with tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke the only players over a 70.0 such mark on 50-plus run-blocking snaps.

Much of a rushing attack boils down to either the efficacy of blocks or the efforts of players once they receive the ball. But in Tampa Bay’s case, a deeper dive under the hood also elucidates what’s been a creatively successful scheme.

This season, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has primarily relied on outside zones, deploying the concepts 34% of the time. Yet Robinson has also mixed in a fair share of man and counter looks, with each representing at least 19% of run plays. That diversity may not seem significant, but the Buccaneers are one of six teams with at least a 19% run rate on three separate concepts in 2026.

Whichever button Robinson presses, the results tend to be favorable.

Having two separate yet effective runners also enables Robinson to maximize his odds. For instance, Irving is the league’s highest-graded runner on counter, while Gainwell is third on outside zone. While utilizing a concept more often with only one runner could create a bit of a tell, that kind of versatility is also a major asset for keeping defenses honest and respecting the full palate of options.

Riding their efficient and explosive run game, coupled with a stingy, blitz-heavy defense, the Buccaneers have surged to second place in the NFC South race — holding a crucial 2-0 divisional advantage. A season that looked like a death knell for Bowles, including a potential sale of assets at the trade deadline, has now been resurrected to the point of plausibly winning the division for the fifth time in six seasons.

The overarching question for the Buccaneers is how long they can sustain this unique formula. After all, the Bucs are just the third team since 1970 to win two straight games while attempting 11 or fewer passes in each, joining the 1973 Bills and 1972 Bears. In case you were curious, neither of those teams even made the playoffs.

Tampa Bay’s offensive principles will be tested in a major way starting in Week 9 when it faces a potent Bears team on Sunday night. A similar challenge awaits against the powerful Lions in Week 11.

The odds are very slim that the Buccaneers can employ similar run-pass splits and score enough points to match those juggernauts, meaning Mayfield — who owns just a 60.6 PFF passing grade this season — will need to not only pass more, but also be more effective. Then again, if the Bucs keep running this well and playing stout defense behind it, they’re certainly capable of throwing off opponents’ rhythm and largely sticking to their unconventional, pre-1906, plan.