College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Bet on Louisiana to upset Minnesota

2RTDN8T Louisiana running back Jacob Kibodi (0) runs the ball during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023 in Norfolk, Va. (AP Photo/Mike Caudill)

• Bet Louisiana-Lafayette +11 (-110): The Ragin' Cajuns are generating 0.287 EPA per play and a 55.8% success rate on passing downs, and they are also PFF’s third-highest graded rushing offense

• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.

Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes


Our college football Week 4 bets came frustratingly close to hitting, but it ended up being a losing week.

We went with BYU (+10) and their moneyline against Kansas, and while the two teams produced almost identical offensive outputs, at around 370 yards, Kansas scored two defensive touchdowns and won the game by 11 points. Liberty (-10) covered against Florida International to reduce the loss.

College football bets in this weekly article now stand at +1.37 units for a 17.62% return on investment.


Louisiana-Lafayette @ Minnesota

  • Louisiana-Lafayette +11 (-110 generally available)
  • Louisiana-Lafayette moneyline (+350 FanDuel)

Minnesota's offense doesn't look like it will be putting away any team this year, including Eastern Michigan as a 20-point favorite and Northwestern as an 11.5-point favorite in a game where they led 31-10 toward the end of the 3rd quarter before losing in overtime.

The Golden Gophers' Athan Kaliakmanis is PFF’s 106th-ranked quarterback in PFF grade out of 164 qualifiers (minimum of 25 dropbacks). His stat line includes just a 55% completion rate, zero big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays. Minnesota's running game, specifically Darius Taylor, has helped the team produce some offense. Taylor has accounted for 529 yards in the last three weeks, but his Week 5 game status is up in the air after he left the Northwestern game in the fourth quarter with an injury.

PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.

Louisiana is likely to be one of the easier defenses on Minnesota's early schedule, but they are comparable to Eastern Michigan, a team that Minnesota managed only 25 points against. Eastern Michigan has allowed 5.13 yards per carry against an easy schedule of Jacksonville State, Massachusetts and Howard, whereas Louisiana has surrendered 5.22 against stronger rushing teams in Buffalo, UAB and Old Dominion. Louisiana has produced an 80.6 PFF coverage grade in FBS play and is allowing -0.264 expected points added per play on passing downs. Although that means running is once again the best option for Minnesota, they could be down their starting running back.

Louisiana, different from Eastern Michigan and Northwestern, possesses actual offensive upside. Northwestern has produced negative EPA per passing play and a 40.9% success rate, and Eastern Michigan is at -0.421 EPA per play and a 27.7% success rate. The Ragin' Cajuns are generating 0.287 EPA per play and a 55.8% success rate on passing downs, and they are also PFF’s third-highest graded rushing offense, averaging 3.3 yards before contact on runs (fifth best). Louisiana has the offensive prowess to stay in this game and potentially produce an upset.

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit