Few were left disappointed on the opening weekend of the 2020 XFL season. Our futures and Week 1 plays got off to a quality start, as the slate played to three closing under totals with oddsmakers middling the opening and closing total of the first game.
Week 2 totals have tumbled down after opening approximately three points lower than last week. Our PFF ELO power ranking falls in line with current futures markets and has DC, Houston and New York on top with Tampa Bay dropping to sixth. The Week 2 spreads opened within the key six-point number but have been bet out in certain matchups. Let's take a look at each game through the PFF lens to see if we can uncover any valuable bets.
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Week 2 Lines
New York Guardians @ DC Defenders (Spread -7, Total 48)
DC looked the part in Week 1, with Cardale Jones looking nearly perfect and posting an 87% adjusted completion percentage. The Defenders covered the 9.5-point spread, causing bettors to double down, which has pushed this week's current line up two points from the open.
The Defenders came away from the inaugural weekend ranked first in our ELO rankings, but their task will prove to be much more difficult against the Guardians, who currently stand in third place in our rankings. New York QB Matt McGloin looked about as middling as you would expect, and the team rode a quality defensive performance to an upset victory while their receiving unit made key plays and came away from Week 1 with the second-best overall unit grade. This line may settle at the current spread, but if it moved through to gain the hook at 7.5, it would be a good opportunity to bet the road dog.
The play to make: None, unless line moves to +7.5 for the Guardians
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