The Houston Texans travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, Jan. 12, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. on ESPN.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
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Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Texans | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 4th | 14th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 1st | 15th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 20th | 16th |
| SOS Played | 18th | 19th |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 69.1 | 61.5 |
| % Run Plays | 39.9% | 38.6% |
| % Pass Plays | 60.1% | 61.4% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.16 | -0.02 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.06 | 0.01 |
QB Comparison
| Texans | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | C. Stroud | A. Rodgers |
| PFF Grade | 72.9 | 68.7 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 106.4 | 101.7 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 65.3 | 69.3 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 2.93% | 4.20% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.54% | 2.45% |
| Power Rating | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Power Rating Rank | 11th | 16th |
Key Injuries: Texans
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Jordan | HB | Leg | Q | 79.2 | 76th |
| J. Hansen | LB | Torso | IR | 77.1 | 82nd |
| K. Lassiter | CB | Leg | Q | 75.9 | 9th |
| T. Settle | DI | Leg | IR | 71.3 | 32nd |
| J. Smith | CB | Other | IR | 68.7 | 137th |
| T. Brown | T | Leg | Q | 68.6 | 49th |
| J. Reed | S | Arm | IR | 65.6 | 137th |
Key Injuries: Steelers
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Ekuale | DI | Leg | IR | 73.3 | 89th |
| D. Washington | TE | Arm | IR | 70.9 | 15th |
| D. Elliott | S | Leg | IR | 67.8 | 62nd |
| B. Jones | T | Head | IR | 57.7 | 115th |
| C. Anderson | T | Leg | IR | 56.1 | 96th |
| I. Loudermilk | DI | Leg | IR | 32.8 | 188th |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Texans | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -3.5 (-110) | 3.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | -3.2 | +3.2 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -5.6% | 0.9% |
| $$$% | 46% | 54% |
| Bets% | 54% | 46% |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Texans | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -183 | +152 |
| PFF Projection | -165 | +165 |
| Implied Win Probability | 62.2% | 37.7% |
| Break Even | 64.6% | 39.7% |
| Value | -2.4% | -2.0% |
| $$$% | 72% | 28% |
| Bets% | 73% | 27% |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 39.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 40.1 | 40.1 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -6.2% | 1.5% |
| $$$% | 51% | 49% |
| Bets% | 36% | 64% |
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