• TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: Under 45.5 receiving yards — Ferguson had the best outing of his young career in Week 9 against the Eagles, but Philadelphia is on a hot streak of shutting down top tight ends.
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Since then, the Eagles have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, two of the best teams in the league, and got blown out by arguably the best team in the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have impressed against a very weak schedule that included the 1-11 Carolina Panthers and 2-10 New York Giants.
Philadelphia closed as a three-point favorite in Week 9, and despite the significant difference in strength of schedule since then, the market has moved significantly toward the Cowboys. Dallas opened as a four-point favorite before getting bet down to 3.5, moving off the most valuable number (three) and moving through it on the other side. That is a big shift in perceived ability, even after considering home-field advantage.
If you have a -110 available on the Eagles +3.5, then I would recommend taking it. But most of the market has moved even further down to the -120 range.
TE Jake Ferguson Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Ferguson had the best outing of his young career in Week 9 against the Eagles, tallying seven catches for 91 yards. However, half of that came on one catch and the rest came in a two-minute drill at the end of the game — not the most reproducible of situations.
The Eagles' schedule of tight ends faced in the three games since then was Travis Kelce (7-44), Dalton Kincaid (5-38) and George Kittle (5-68). Ferguson is heavily involved in Dallas' offense, but Peyton Hendershot is returning to the field after two months on injured reserve, which could lead to less playing time for Ferguson. Luke Schoonmaker is in the mix for reps, too. The Eagles also added linebacker Shaq Leonard into their rotation this week, a previously exceptional coverage linebacker with the Colts.