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Sharpe's Take: Best NFL bets to make in Week 4

After a quick examination of the playoff implications for Week 4's slate of games, we'll take an in-depth look at how the totals market has changed in 2020 as well as make a couple of picks against the spread. It's time to place your bets for Week 4!

Editor's note: PFF's Betting Dashboards (PFF Greenline) are available for both all NFL and all NCAA games between FBS teams as a part of your PFF ELITE subscription.

LEVERAGE

Below are the leverage charts, which display each team's chance of making the playoffs based on whether they win or lose in Week 4.

The game with the most significant playoff implications is the clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans — which we'll talk about more below — as it has a substantial effect on each team's chance to make the postseason. The Buffalo BillsLas Vegas Raiders game is also set to be a high-leverage affair, with a loss reducing the Raiders' chances to below 50% despite it only dropping them to a 2-2 record.

The New Orleans Saints now have a much smaller chance than we predicted before the start of the season, and they will need a Week 4 win over the Detroit Lions, a team that looked much improved last week with top wide receiver Kenny Golladay back in the lineup. The Saints will hope their top wide receiver, Michael Thomas, can return to action this week and give their offense a similar boost.

TOTALS

I've been hesitant to bet on totals this year due to uncertainty from COVID. Here's how games have been finishing so far through three weeks, relative to the closing lines from Pinnacle.

Season Average Line Average Total Delta % Games Over
2016 45.1 45.8 +0.7 56%
2017 44.8 43.6 -1.2 49%
2018 45.3 46.4 +1.1 52%
2019 45.9 44.7 -1.2 46%
2020 46.6 51.0 +4.4 60%
2020 vs. Past avg. +1.5 +5.2 +3.7 +10%

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