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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-9.5) [Total: 42.5]
Game Overview
Despite diverging paths of success in 2025, the AFC West's Raiders and Broncos will have no shortage of bad blood. The Broncos enter Week 10 as overwhelming favorites over the Raiders, laying more than a touchdown for the first time since the days of Peyton Manning. In fact, Las Vegas has owned this rivalry for the better part of a decade, winning 12 of 18 games and holding a 13-5 record against the spread since 2016. That stretch includes a 7-2 record against the spread as the underdog and an eight-game win streak from 2020 to 2023.
That all changed this last season when Bo Nix entered the picture. The Broncos were able to capture commanding wins in each matchup, covering as the favorites by margins that would have covered even this lofty spread. With a 66.7% cover rate last season, the Broncos were one of the most profitable teams to bet on in the NFL. That hasn’t been the case this time around, as they’ve covered just four games and hold a 1-3 against-the-spread record when favored by seven or more points.
Still, the Raiders have looked significantly worse this season, particularly on the road, where they hold a 1-3 against-the-spread record, being blown out in each of their two games when gifted more than a touchdown on the spread. That ineptitude has resulted in a 29th-ranked average road game margin for Las Vegas, losing by 18.8 points on average.
Despite drafting Ashton Jeanty to bolster their rushing numbers, the Raiders have been abysmal on the ground due to poor blocking. Las Vegas ranks 30th in rushing success rate. They are generating 3.2 yards after contact per attempt (sixth highest), thanks to Jeanty’s balance and ability to shed would-be tacklers, but the offense ranks in the bottom five in yards per carry on average (3.8) behind a front that has created the fewest yards before contact in the NFL.
Quarterback Geno Smith has needed to shoulder the offensive burden, which has ultimately led to a significant regression in his game. Faced with a Broncos defense that ranks in the top five in nearly every run-defense metric, this will be another matchup where Smith will be asked to do far too much.
Without establishing a presence in the run game, the Broncos’ front will be able to tee off on Smith with a pass rush that generates pressure at the third-highest rate (43.0%) in the NFL. The Raiders quarterback is particularly sensitive to pressure, with his 30.0 PFF passing grade under pressure ranking last among 38 qualifying passers in the NFL.
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: Over 3.5 receptions (-115)
Jakobi Meyers' departure vacates a significant role in the Raiders' offense. The 29-year-old receiver led the team in targets (48) and receptions (33), finding a target on 19.8% of his routes run this season. Yet, this franchise likely wouldn't have made the trade without believing in Tre Tucker, whose production was nearly on par with that of Meyers. Despite seeing five fewer targets, Tucker leads the team in yardage (427) and stands just one reception behind Meyers’ total.
While Brock Bowers has returned as the undisputed top pass-catcher in the offense, the expectation is that Tucker will be in line for an expanded target share with limited options in the receiving corps. Much of Tucker’s volume came without Bowers in the lineup, but he has surpassed this line in four of eight games this season, including his eight-reception, 145-yard and three-touchdown performance when both Bowers and Meyers were in the lineup.
Given the projected point spread for this matchup, the game script will likely facilitate significant passing volume for the Raiders, which will net plenty of opportunities for Tucker. Without Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (pectoral) in the lineup — cornerback Riley Moss (ankle) and safety Brandon Jones (foot) are also limited in practice on a short week — the Broncos‘ secondary will be shorthanded.
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