Betting News & Analysis

PrizePicks Week 13 preview

Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates the first down during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

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ANDREW ERICKSON

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR. UNDER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Even as a Laviska Shenault truther, I can acknowledge that this line is way too high. The second-year receiver has eclipsed 45.5 receiving yards just once since Week 8 — with 50 receiving yards — despite seeing a healthy 18% target share in his last four games. Last week, Shenault led the Jaguars with nine targets versus a horrid Atlanta Falcons defense and posted just 33 receiving yards. 

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He also ran fewer routes than both Laquon Treadwell and James O'Shaughnessy, creating more concern that he may not be able to duplicate his nine targets from a week ago. Shenault's 6.6-yard aDOT, which ranks 100th among qualifying receivers, makes it extremely difficult for him to pick up chunk yardage.

There’s also the glaring WR/CB matchup issue with Shenault operating from the slot. Rams star cornerback Jalen Ramsey defends the slot frequently for the Los Angeles defense and ranks sixth in yards allowed per coverage snap this season.

All signs point to Shenault going under in Week 13. 

JOSH ALLEN UNDER 265.5 PASSING YARDS

The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a league-best 189.1 passing yards per game this season, and the New England Patriots defense ranks fourth at 219.3. This AFC East matchup has the second-lowest projected total on the Week 13 slate at 44 points, so it’s hardly one that projects to feature much in the way of offensive explosion.

This is precisely why I’d be looking to bet the under on Josh Allen’s 265.5 passing yards prop — a number he has surpassed only once in his last five games. The same goes for Mac Jones’ passing prop at 220.5 passing yards and Stefon Diggs’ 75.5 receiving yards prop. Like Allen, those players have hit their betting number just once in their last five games.

It’s a correlated three-legged Monday Night Football parlay you should be all over on Prizepicks.com.

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BEN BROWN

TEVIN COLEMAN OVER 47.5 RUSHING YARDS

Coleman soaked up the lion's share of offensive utilization in the Jets’ first game without Michael Carter, playing 45% of the offensive snaps and handling 47% of the total team rush attempts. The running back usage split looks obvious after one game, with Coleman the preferred option on the ground and Ty Johnson handling most passing-down work. 

As 6.5-point home underdogs, the Jets may not hit 34 rush attempts like they did in their victory over Houston in Week 12. Coleman’s opportunities should stay consistent, as a lack of rush attempts should directly impact Austin Walter and Johnson.

With PFF’s fantasy projections expecting 57.9 rushing yards for Coleman on 13.5 attempts, this rushing yardage prop should be an easy one for the veteran to eclipse on Sunday. Philadelphia’s run defense unit ranks just 19th in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grades. 

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JA’MARR CHASE OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Chase’s receiving yardage number on PrizePicks looks like one of the biggest mispriced lines of the season, as it hasn’t closed this low since Week 1.

The rookie has failed to go over this number in his past four games because the Bengals' receiving corps has returned to full strength, but this number still appears to be an overreaction. PFF’s fantasy projections see Chase hitting 86.6 receiving yards on eight total targets. 

Chase still sits above a 21% team target share over this four-game stretch and accounts for almost 35% of the team’s total air yards. He racked up over 100 yards in Week 9 and 11, so the usage hasn’t changed dramatically despite the production taking a nosedive. Things should regress toward expectation in Week 13, making this over one of the easiest bets of the weekend. 

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