PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
JOSH ALLEN: OVER 275.5 PASSING YARDS
Welcome to Shredsville, Josh Allen.
The Buffalo Bills quarterback should have a field day against a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks seventh in passing yards allowed per game (280) and fifth in deep-ball rate faced (14%).
The Saints predominately run Cover 1 and Quarters coverage, setting Allen up to hit his high-end fantasy ceiling and breeze past his 275.5 passing yards prop. This year, Allen ranks fourth among quarterbacks in PFF grade (84.6) against these coverages, while his 9.1 yards per pass attempt ranks third.
PFF’s fantasy projections have Allen passing for 283 passing yards, so the numbers support backing the Bills' passing attack and their sixth-ranked pass-play rate.
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ELIJAH MOORE OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Elijah Moore ran a route on 81% of Joe Flacco‘s dropbacks in Week 11, the highest mark on the team and his best since Week 1.
The rookie’s impressive production seems to have finally convinced the coaching staff to get him on the field more. And that paid dividends, as he caught eight of his 11 targets for 141 receiving yards in Week 11.
Since Week 8, Moore has surpassed 44 receiving yards in each game he's played, and he's averaging 84 yards per game over that span.
Smash the over on his 43.5 receiving yards prop this week — Moore gets to face up against a Houston Texans defense that ranks seventh in receiving yards allowed per game to receivers over the last four weeks despite playing only three games.
BEN BROWN
DAK PRESCOTT OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS
The Cowboys may well be missing their top two receiving options, but this 265.5 passing yards prop is 10 yards below any closing prop number Prescott has drawn over the past two seasons.
This is pricing in the absolute worst-case scenario for the Cowboys' passing offense, but PFF's fantasy football projections still have Prescott throwing for 40 yards more than this prop number.
Las Vegas no longer looks like a team to fear defensively and enters this Thanksgiving game with a below-league-average coverage grade. The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most expected points added (EPA) per passing play of any team this season and struggle when their front seven can’t apply pressure on the quarterback.
As seven-point home favorites, Dallas should cruise to a covered victory behind Prescott's arm. He easily eclipses this prop number in all but the worst-case scenario.
STEFON DIGGS OVER 75.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Buffalo’s offense has run hot and cold all season, and Diggs has been at the forefront of those cold games.
The star wideout saw a season-high 13 targets in Weel 10 but crashed back down to earth with just six last week. His 23% team target share leads the Bills, but Diggs isn’t running as many routes or playing as many snaps as Emmanuel Sanders.
Diggs’ matchup against Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore isn’t appealing, but this does seem priced into the PrizePicks line, as Diggs hasn’t seen a receiving prop number this low since Week 8 of the 2020 season. The discount based on matchup is enough reason to buy into the Bills at their low, with the expectation that Diggs is involved early and often in their scripted plays.
After a hot start, Diggs should cruise over this modest receiving prop. PFF's fantasy projections have Diggs finishing 15 yards over this number.
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