PrizePicks Week 11 Preview | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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PrizePicks Week 11 Preview

Glendale, Arizona, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) runs with the ball during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

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ANDREW ERICKSON

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS

McCaffrey is back.

For the second straight week, the Stanford product went over 54 receiving yards despite playing fewer than 60% of the snaps. He has also been targeted on 43% of his routes over the past two weeks, the league's second-highest rate over that span. Put simply: When he is on the field, McCaffrey is getting the rock.

He has gone over this receiving prop in every full game he has played. Ride this receiving over to the moon.

McCaffrey: Receiving stats by game
Week Snaps Targets Receptions Receiving yards
1 57 9 9 89
2 54 6 5 65
3 22 2 2 9
9 29 4 4 54
10 44 10 10 66

TAYLOR HEINICKE: UNDER 245.5 PASSING YARDS

The Washington Football Team’s quarterback is getting too much love with this 245.5 passing yards prop.

Heinicke is taking on the Carolina Panthers heavy Cover 3 defense, which has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (192.7) to opposing quarterbacks this season. As a result, teams have thrown at Carolina at the eighth-lowest rate in the league.

The Washington signal-caller has also struggled immensely against Cover 3, grading out as PFF’s 28th-ranked quarterback among 31 qualifiers against those coverages.

PFF’s fantasy projections have Heinicke’s mean forecast at 235 passing yards, giving a strong lean to this under. 

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BEN BROWN

Justin Fields: OVER 179.5 PASSING YARDS

Fields earned an 88.5 PFF passing grade the last time he took the field, the best grade of his season and the third-best among first-year signal-callers this year.

The passing volume has remained consistent for Fields as a starter, but he is now starting to win on the deep passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air. In all, 67% of Fields' passing yards have come through the air, which is by far the highest mark for any starting quarterback this season. The underlying issue is that the Bears’ receiving unit has rarely provided yards after the catch.

Justin Fields: PFF passing grade by game
Week Dropbacks PFF passing grade
1 2 61.8
2 20 47.7
3 33 49.3
4 20 72.8
5 26 56.4
6 40 59.5
7 44 35.6
8 42 65.7
9 41 88.5

Although the Ravens’ defense appears daunting on paper, it heads into Week 11 with the 16th-best PFF defensive grade in the NFL. And it's been susceptible in the situation the Bears' offense needs to take advantage of the most — yards after the catch. In 2021, no team has allowed more yards after the catch per reception than Baltimore.

The Bears have a golden opportunity to build on their pre-bye success, so expect Fields to easily eclipse this low passing yardage number with a few chunk plays against the Ravens’ secondary.  

PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
A.J. Dillon: OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS

Fantasy managers have been waiting for this moment since the pictures of Dillon’s quadriceps started trickling onto the internet.

The Packers running will finally take the field as the lead running back in Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Jones sidelined with a mild MCL sprain. Dillon and Jones have accounted for almost 90% of the Packers’ rushing attempts this season, and with no other real Packer's running back options, it’s safe to project over 60% of the rush attempts to go toward Dillon this Sunday. 

Volume alone is reason enough alone for Dillon finishing over this prop number. PFF’s fantasy projections project him to finish with 78 rushing yards on almost 18 carries.

Minnesota’s rush defense also offers an enticing matchup, as they sit 26th in opponent-adjusted run defense grade. This prop number is only going in one direction, so locking in Dillon to go over at the lowest number of the week is the best opportunity on PrizePicks in Week 11.

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