Betting News & Analysis

PrizePicks Week 11 Preview

Glendale, Arizona, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) runs with the ball during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.

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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice. 


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McCaffrey is back.

For the second straight week, the Stanford product went over 54 receiving yards despite playing fewer than 60% of the snaps. He has also been targeted on 43% of his routes over the past two weeks, the league's second-highest rate over that span. Put simply: When he is on the field, McCaffrey is getting the rock.

He has gone over this receiving prop in every full game he has played. Ride this receiving over to the moon.

McCaffrey: Receiving stats by game
Week Snaps Targets Receptions Receiving yards
1 57 9 9 89
2 54 6 5 65
3 22 2 2 9
9 29 4 4 54
10 44 10 10 66


The Washington Football Team’s quarterback is getting too much love with this 245.5 passing yards prop.

Heinicke is taking on the Carolina Panthers heavy Cover 3 defense, which has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (192.7) to opposing quarterbacks this season. As a result, teams have thrown at Carolina at the eighth-lowest rate in the league.

The Washington signal-caller has also struggled immensely against Cover 3, grading out as PFF’s 28th-ranked quarterback among 31 qualifiers against those coverages.

PFF’s fantasy projections have Heinicke’s mean forecast at 235 passing yards, giving a strong lean to this under. 

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Justin Fields: OVER 179.5 PASSING YARDS

Fields earned an 88.5 PFF passing grade the last time he took the field, the best grade of his season and the third-best among first-year signal-callers this year.

The passing volume has remained consistent for Fields as a starter, but he is now starting to win on the deep passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air. In all, 67% of Fields' passing yards have come through the air, which is by far the highest mark for any starting quarterback this season. The underlying issue is that the Bears’ receiving unit has rarely provided yards after the catch.

Justin Fields: PFF passing grade by game
Week Dropbacks PFF passing grade
1 2 61.8
2 20 47.7
3 33 49.3
4 20 72.8
5 26 56.4
6 40 59.5
7 44 35.6
8 42 65.7
9 41 88.5

Although the Ravens’ defense appears daunting on paper, it heads into Week 11 with the 16th-best PFF defensive grade in the NFL. And it's been susceptible in the situation the Bears' offense needs to take advantage of the most — yards after the catch. In 2021, no team has allowed more yards after the catch per reception than Baltimore.

The Bears have a golden opportunity to build on their pre-bye success, so expect Fields to easily eclipse this low passing yardage number with a few chunk plays against the Ravens’ secondary.  

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Fantasy managers have been waiting for this moment since the pictures of Dillon’s quadriceps started trickling onto the internet.

The Packers running will finally take the field as the lead running back in Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Jones sidelined with a mild MCL sprain. Dillon and Jones have accounted for almost 90% of the Packers’ rushing attempts this season, and with no other real Packer's running back options, it’s safe to project over 60% of the rush attempts to go toward Dillon this Sunday. 

Volume alone is reason enough alone for Dillon finishing over this prop number. PFF’s fantasy projections project him to finish with 78 rushing yards on almost 18 carries.

Minnesota’s rush defense also offers an enticing matchup, as they sit 26th in opponent-adjusted run defense grade. This prop number is only going in one direction, so locking in Dillon to go over at the lowest number of the week is the best opportunity on PrizePicks in Week 11.

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