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PrizePicks Week 10 Preview

Denver, Colorado, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) carries the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

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ANDREW ERICKSON

STEFON DIGGS: UNDER 85.5 RECEIVING YARDS

When in doubt, bet the under. But, in the case of Stefon Diggs’ 85.5 receiving yards player prop, there is a huge doubt on whether he can even reach this number because his target share is no longer at an elite level. His 18% target share and 21% air-yard share don’t even rank first on his own team over the last four weeks.

The Bills receiver’s 22% target share pales in comparison to his alpha 29% in 2020. And the prop lines have yet to re-adjust expectations for Diggs, who has surpassed 85.5 receiving yards just twice in eight games.

Although the Jets’ defense is not great, they haven’t exactly been giving up huge games to opposing receivers. New York has allowed just two wide receivers to crack over 90 yards this season. 

DAN ARNOLD: OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS

I tune in to watch Jacksonville Jaguars games every week for one reason alone — to watch Dan Arnold ball out. The Jags tight end is super involved in the team’s passing attack, having run a route on over 70% of team dropbacks in the last four weeks. He has converted his top-12 tight end usage into 17 targets and 120-plus receiving yards over his last two contests.

He has failed to clear 60 receiving yards just once as a full-time starter, making his 38.5 receiving yards prop a fairly easy bar to clear. The matchup versus Indianapolis also lends itself to Arnold hitting over his projected mark because their defense has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to the position this season. 

PFF’s fantasy projections have Arnold slated for 45 receiving yards.

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BEN BROWN

LAMAR JACKSON: OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS

Jackson is coming off his best rushing performance of the 2021 season after scrambling nine times against the Vikings. His 21 total rush attempts marked the second-highest game total of his career — he is now the Ravens' entire passing and rushing offense. 

The 2019 NFL MVP finished over his rushing yardage prop the last two weeks to push his season record to 4-4. The problem is that this early-week PrizePicks line hasn’t adjusted to his most recent performances, as this 65.5 number is exactly where he has closed the past two weeks. After an early-season prop number over 70, the five-yard adjustment offers plenty of room for Jackson to go over this number. 

The short week is a quick turnaround time for the Ravens, but the expectation is that Latavius Murray isn’t able to suit up for Baltimore, which will only increase Jackson's opportunity.

Baltimore is over a touchdown road favorite against a Dolphins team that most likely won’t have Tua Tagovailoa. The Ravens will be incentivized to run more if they jump out to an early lead, which means Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to run in the second half of this matchup. In a game against a top-ranked rush unit facing off against a top-ranked run-defense unit, the play is to side with the offense every time. 

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KYLE PITTS: OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Kyle Pitts had a relatively quiet Week 9 game for an Atlanta offense that greatly exceeded expectations against one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Pitts was the focal point for a Saints defense that utilized Marshon Lattimore and a number of coverage schemes to limit the star tight end. 

Dallas’ defense won’t have the same luxury of slowing Pitts, a matchup nightmare for anyone the Cowboys put in coverage against him. Pitts saw an 18% target share and still went over this receiving yardage number despite having only three receptions. In a potential shootout on Sunday in the highest-total game of Week 10, expect Pitts to erupt and clear this receiving yardage number with ease. 

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