Not only are we in the dog days of the offseason, with free agency all but finishing up and the NFL Draft just a month away, but we are unable to bet on any real live sports due to the coronavirus, with the NBA, MLB, MLS and (most importantly) the XFL on hiatus for the foreseeable future. While my colleague Ben Brown did a great job alerting you to some draft props and division futures that are available, I’m going to focus on one particular team for which fading will be a +EV move in 2020: the Minnesota Vikings.
The 2019 Minnesota Vikings had a nice bounceback season during the second stanza of what is now going to be an extended version of the Kirk Cousins poem. Despite being swept by both the Chicago Bears and the eventual division champion Green Bay Packers, the Vikings finished 10-6, scoring 407 points (eighth) while allowing just 303 points (fifth). Cousins was our fourth-highest-graded passer in the entire NFL and made enough big plays down by the bayou against the Saints to earn Minnesota its first road playoff win since Dante Culpepper and Randy Moss downed Green Bay in January of 2005.
That said, 2019 is over and — much like 2018 — there’s way too much fundamentally wrong with the purple to be optimistic about them in 2020. For that reason, we discuss fading their optimistic win total of nine:
Why the Vikings Will Go Under 9 Wins (-110)
The Defense Will Regress
As impressive as 2019 was, there were some significant things that went the Vikings’ way during the course of the year. First off, the following quarterbacks played significant snaps against them: Chase Daniel, Daniel Jones, Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Matt Moore, Kyle Allen, David Blough.