Betting News & Analysis

Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Player props, spread bets and more

Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Melvin Gordon o10.5 receiving yards (-125; playable to 14.5): Colts have allowed seventh-most receiving yards to backs, with at least one RB over this mark in four straight games.

Bet Gordon u58.5 rush yards (-115; playable down to 54.5): Big mismatch for Colts DT Grover Stewart (4th in PFF run ‘D') vs. Denver interior OL all graded in low 60s or worse.

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Last updated: Thurs. Oct. 6, 10:50 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Here are the PFF staff best bets kicking off Week 5 Thursday night with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos:

Ben Brown: Michael Pittman o5.5 receptions (+122 Caesars)

Pittman has been the clear cut number one in this passing offense, with a 94.4% snap percentage, including 96.5% of routes run. His target percentage of 23.3% jumps off the page, but the real reason to place this bet is the low aDot of 7.3 that Pittman has been working with. He’s been operating underneath for this offense with Alec Pierce working over the top, meaning we should see lots of low leverage targets for Pittman once again. 76.7% of his targets have been first read throws, so despite him working underneath it does very much appear to be scheme specific for why he is receiving so much of the work underneath. 

George Chahrouri: Broncos RB Melvin Gordon u58.5 rush yards (-115 BetMGM; playable down to 54.5)

As Seth Galina discussed on the PFF Forecast, Colts DT Grover Stewart ranks 4th in PFF run defense grade and has a big mismatch against the Broncos interior OL that all grade in the low 60s or worse. To make matters worse for Gordon, but better for this bet, Mike Boone appears to have some juice and has yet to fumble like MG3.

Martyn Carlisle: Colts RB Nyheim Hines o27.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings; playable up to 35.5)

Since the Colts picked Jonathan Taylor in the second round in 2020, Nyheim Hines has played 40%+ of snaps eight times. He averages 5.63 catches and 41.88 receiving yards per game. In the one game Taylor missed, Week 12 in the 2020 season on the Covid list, Hines had eight catches for 66 yards. He's playing an average of 34% offensive snaps this season and has already averaged 28 receiving yards per game — and his timeshare is about to markedly increase. 

Arjun Menon: Gordon o13.5 receiving yards (-110 FanDuel; playable up to 14.5)


PFF staff best bets are 35-29 entering Week 5.

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