• New York Giants QB Tyrod Taylor connects with new favorite target Jalin Hyatt en route to a big day: Despite the reputation, the Jets' secondary is attackable. And prices are remarkably low on the Giants, as quarterback Tyrod Taylor has the lowest passing prop on the board.
• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence leans on Christian Kirk in a juicy matchup: The Pittsburgh Steelers play a man-heavy scheme, which should tilt targets toward Christian Kirk. Over the last two seasons, Kirk has earned a 28% target share against man coverage, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the next-closest Jaguars receiver.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Story: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence leans on Christian Kirk in a juicy matchup
• We discussed the reasons to be optimistic about the Jaguars passing game in our leveraging tails article this week.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers play a man-heavy scheme, which should tilt targets toward Christian Kirk. Over the last two seasons, Kirk has earned a 28% target share against man coverage, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the next-closest Jaguars receiver.
• Kirk has dominated man coverage, too, producing the third-best separation grade in the NFL. With such a commanding share of the targets against these looks, Kirk should be featured often in Week 8.
• Further elevating this spot for Kirk is his matchup in the slot with cornerback Chandon Sullivan, who has really struggled to prevent separation, leading teams to attack him often in the slot.
PointsBet SGP Build: +2800
QB Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards
WR Christian Kirk: 95+ receiving yards
Jacksonville Jaguars: Moneyline
Story: New York Giants QB Tyrod Taylor connects with new favorite target Jalin Hyatt en route to a big day
• Offenses have far more success passing against the New York Jets than running, with the unit ranking in the top eight in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and in the bottom eight in EPA allowed per pass.
• Despite the reputation, the Jets' secondary is attackable. And prices are remarkably low on the Giants, as quarterback Tyrod Taylor has the lowest passing prop on the board.
• If Taylor and the Giants are to go over their prop, it will likely be for two reasons. The first is increased volume, where the matchup could tilt them toward the pass. The second is an increase in efficiency, likely due to deep passes, on which Taylor has been far more aggressive and successful than Daniel Jones.
• Sportsbooks are yet to adjust for Jalin Hyatt’s new role, hanging his prop line at only 20.5, even though the rookie pass-catcher has played more than 70% of his team's snaps in back-to-back weeks.
• The line builds in an irrelevant sample from when Hyatt was only a part-time player. The truth is that if any Giants receiver is going to go over his prop, it is likely Hyatt, who has seen the sixth-most air yards over the last two weeks and ranks second among receivers in PFF grade on deep targets over that time.
• We know Taylor will look deep to Hyatt, and if they can connect on a couple of deep passes, they can fly over their prop numbers.
PointsBet SGP Build 1: 30-1
QB Tyrod Taylor: 250+ passing yards
WR Jalin Hyatt: 80+ receiving yards
PointsBet SGP Build 2: 85-1
QB Tyrod Taylor: 250+ passing yards yards
WR Jalin Hyatt: 80+ receiving yards
New York Giants: Moneyline
Story: New Orleans Saints WR Rashid Shaheed breaks a deep touchdown
• The Achilles heel for this Indianapolis Colts defense has been its inability to limit big gains, as they rank toward the bottom of the league in preventing explosive pass plays.
• Shaheed has been one of the game’s best, both in terms of his separation grade on deep routes and his ability to create after the catch.
• The Saints pass-catcher has run a route on at least 70% of his team's passing plays in back-to-back weeks, so it finally appears the Saints are letting him cook.
• The ever-talented wide receiver is in a great matchup to break a big one en route to a big day.
FanDuel SGP Build: +3612
WR Rashid Shaheed: 80+ receiving yards
WR Rashid Shaheed: Touchdown scorer
QB Derek Carr: 300+ passing yards
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