Last updated: Monday Oct. 24, 12:45 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the Player Props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
It doesn’t get much better than this, the Chicago Bears at the New England Patriots on “Monday Night Football.” After a lackluster Week 7 of football action, we finally get some appointment-level viewing in primetime. Let’s dive in.
GAME LINES
After a choppy start to the 2022 season, the Patriots' defense seems to be hitting its stride. No one can take advantage of sloppy QB play quite like Bill Belichick, who is a master at winning games with his defense against an inferior opponent. And this Monday-night matchup sets up as the perfect opportunity for him to flex, facing off against PFF's third-lowest-graded quarterback — and lowest-graded passing quarterback by a decent margin through the first six weeks — in Justin Fields.
• PFF Greenline shows no value on spread or total: The handicap seems straightforward from that angle, with a perfect Fields game the only thing standing in the way of the Patriots running away with this one. Typically, PFF Greenline would side with the heavy dog when the spread gets this wide, but even the top-down modeling sees a significant enough discrepancy between these two teams where we show no value on the spread or total.
• All the way live: The best approach Monday is attacking this matchup in-game. It does require readers to actually sit through this game, making it not quite a viable approach for some. But if the Bears have some early offensive success on scripted plays, it’s entirely possible we see the in-game spread drop below 7.
• If spread falls below 7, lock in the Patriots: It's a potentially easy bet on New England figuring out the Bears offense.
• If the Bears start out slow, pound the in-game under: And pray the choppiness continues. Seems like a valuable use of anyone’s time on Monday night. Thankfully, we also have player props we can bet and forget about before waking up to some winners tomorrow morning and forgetting this game ever existed.
Bet: In-game bet pending
PLAYER PROPS
Bet Bears WR Equanimeous St. Brown — Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Will Jones follow Mooney?: It’s safe to assume Bill Belichick isn’t going to allow the Bears' top receiving option to beat him on Monday night. We should expect Darnell Mooney to get a decent dose of Jack Jones, who hasn’t shadowed yet in his rookie season but does flip-flop sides of the field. Mooney’s been utilized all over the formation but has been in the slot on 63.4% of routes run this season. With Mooney as the clear No. 1 option, will Jones finally travel to line up against him in man-coverage situations?
• St. Brown would be in line for an uptick in volume as the clear No. 2 receiver: He’s ran a route on over 60% of dropbacks, and needs one target to clear this lowly receiving-yardage number. After a game with zero targets, it looks like the time to buy low on St. Brown, especially if the game script forces the Bears to throw late.
Bet Bears RB Khalil Herbert — Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Playing only 21.9% of the offensive snaps in Week 6 vs Washington, Herbert was the forgotten man: He still had seven carries, but with only a 25.9% team rush attempt share, any drop in volume to the Bears' rushing attack directly impacts Herbert’s outlook. When David Montgomery is healthy and in the fold, the Bears seem unwilling to give Herbert much more than a few opportunities per game.
Unfavorable script: With game script also not working in his favor, expect Herbert to be well short of this number with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter. It will come down to some garbage-time production being the make-or-break point for this prop bet. Anything to make the sweat to the final ticks of this game worth it in true degenerate fashion.
Ben's SNF preview went 2-2, bringing his season record in this space to 35-45 (-2.23 units).
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