Betting News & Analysis

NFL Betting 2022: 5 mispriced player props in Week 6

Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back top pass during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

• Joe Burrow's interception prop (0.5): Take the under — Burrow’s shaky decision-making from earlier in the season has subsided, and the Saints have picked off only one pass thus far.

• WR Diontae Johnson's receiving yards prop (58.5): Take the under — Expect a ground-heavy approach for Pittsburgh in Week 6 due to Tampa Bay's leaky run defense.

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Our player prop picks last week went 2-3 yet still broke even thanks to Baker Mayfield’s juiced odds of staying out of the endzone. These prop plays are up just over three units on 26 bets so far this season.

Here are my five favorite betting picks for Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season.

QB Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons: Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-115)

There’s not much nuance to this one. Mariota is operating the single-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this season, at 49.4% of offensive snaps. The Falcons are also facing the second-most run-heavy offense in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers, at 48.1% of offensive snaps. And the kicker: the 49ers have the highest coverage grade of any defense in the NFL. So expect a short game with little success through the air for the Falcons. 

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RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Under 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Five games into the 2022 NFL season, and most teams are still a large product of the schedule they’ve faced. The Packers have had success on the ground early on, but they’ve also faced only one run defense that’s graded in the upper half of the league this season. The Jets come in as the 10th-ranked unit in that regard. 

There’s also been a drastic efficiency difference between the Packers' backs that the team's coaching staff may have taken note of:

Stat A.J. Dillon Aaron Jones
Attempts 63 61
YPC 3.9 6.4
YAC/Attempt 2.7 4
EPA/Rush -0.2 0.09
Success Rate 38.80% 41.80%

In last week’s game against the Giants, Aaron Jones played 46 snaps to Dillon’s 20 after they were almost identical the first four weeks. If that’s a sign of things to come and not an aberration, the under appears to be a lock.

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WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

Expect a ground-heavy approach for the Steelers in Week 6 for two reasons. The first is that they don’t want to throw a rookie quarterback to the wolves against Todd Bowles' blitz packages, even if they fall behind. The second is just due to where the talent lies on Tampa Bay’s defense. The Buccaneers rank third in coverage grade through five weeks but only 18th against the run. Combine that with the big, physical press cornerbacks for the Bucs not being a great matchup for the 183-pound Johnson, and the under looks like the bet.

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QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Buccaneers' answer to an underperforming offense to start the season has been to just abandon the run game altogether. Over the past three weeks, they’ve passed on nearly 80% of their offensive snaps (163 runs versus 44 runs). 

Now, Brady is facing a Steelers cornerback room that has struggled mightily this season. The 820 yards allowed by their cornerbacks through five games is the sixth-most in the NFL. That’s a scary thought with the Bucs receivers coming to town. 

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QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: Under .5 Interceptions (-119)

The Bengals' offense may still be a work in progress, but at least Joe Burrow’s shaky decision-making from earlier in the season has subsided. He’s made only one turnover-worthy play on 72 dropbacks in the past two weeks. Working in his favor is a New Orleans defense that hasn’t exactly been ball-hawking this season. They’ve picked off only one pass on the year, making this prop a worthwhile bet.

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