• Bet Dalton Schultz over 3.5 receptions: We should expect high passing volume in the Texans game. Plus, the team was willing to get Schultz more involved last week.
• Bet Skyy Moore over 34.5 receiving yards: Moore's receiving yardage line is in the low 30s despite Patrick Mahomes’ passing line being 285.5, and the Bears' coverage unit is vulnerable.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Our bets from Week 2 on Sunday and Monday and the Week 3 Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers went 3-3 for a 0.01 unit loss if betting all lines to win one unit.
Anthony Richardson’s concussion early in the first quarter, forcing him to exit after he had already gained 35 of the 42 yards required to go over his number, made it a small loss. Our NFL bets for the season are now 10-7 for a +3.61 profit and a 20.82% return on investment.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars — Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (+126 FanDuel)
It's been a relatively quiet start in Houston for Dalton Schultz as their big-money tight end, having gained just 38 yards on six catches through two weeks. But there was a shift in how the Texans used him from Week 1 to Week 2 in that they schemed to get him more involved by looking for him in a lot of quick-game scenarios, targeting him on shallow routes underneath the coverage.
Most-Targeted TEs | Week 2, 2023
With Houston on the road this week as more than a touchdown underdog, we can expect high passing volume — especially considering that the Texans’ offensive line has generated just 0.4 yards before contact on rushing plays, which ranks 29th of 32 teams, and the Jaguars’ run defense has allowed 3.23 yards per carry, the seventh-best mark in the league.
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs — Skyy Moore Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-104 Caesars)
Skyy Moore is a starting wide receiver in the same offense as the NFL's best passer. Yet, his receiving yardage line is in the low 30s despite Patrick Mahomes’ passing line being 285.5. Moore’s line in Week 1 was 45.5 and he drew a blank on three targets in a game where nothing went right for the Chiefs. In Week 2, he ran more routes than all Chiefs receivers other than Marquez Valdes-Scantling and garnered four targets that he turned into 70 yards and a touchdown.
This week, Moore faces a Chicago Bears defense that has given up more than 10 yards per coverage snap to receivers (27th of 32 teams) — against the Packers and Buccaneers with Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield at quarterback, respectively. This is a significant step up in competition for a Bears defense that already struggled to contain two low-end signal-callers.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings — Justin Herbert 350+ Passing Yards (+460 Caesars) & 3+ Passing TD (+280 FanDuel)
The Chargers' pass protection has held up very well so far against two middle-of-the-pack pass-rush units in Miami and Tennessee, and they face another group this week that has done little to suggest they will be a threat, especially with Marcus Davenport already ruled out.
Danielle Hunter has a winnable matchup against tackle Trey Pipkins, but we can expect Pipkins to get significant help against the Vikings' only real threat. Minnesota’s coverage unit has not been as bad as expected so far this year, but Baker Mayfield did not take many chances in Week 1 against the group, with an average depth of target of just 7.3 yards. Jalen Hurts has played well below last year’s level so far and still managed to hit Devonta Smith behind the defense twice in Week 2.
Justin Herbert, currently seventh in average depth of target, will be much more aggressive from a clean pocket and also has the receivers to put up numbers. This is expected to be a close match. The Vikings are currently a one-point favorite, and the game total currently sits in the mid-50s. Dome games are conducive to passing, so we can expect fireworks from both teams against coverage units lacking any real star power.
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