Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11 Same-Game Parlays: Bet on Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford to have big days

2T0C1T5 Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) throwing ball against Chicago Bears defensive end Khalid Kareem (52) during the second half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

• Opportunity for Fields: This matchup sets up well for Fields to be throwing often and to have some success downfield. Teams have passed over expected nearly 5% of the time against the Lions, a top-five rate in the NFL. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have faced the second-deepest average target depth and have allowed explosive plays at a top-five rate.

• Rams find themselves in a good spot against zone-heavy Seattle: Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL against zone coverage. But Nacua has dominated the target share against zone, earning targets at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

Story: Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields connects on some deep passes and racks up the passing yards

• Justin Fields has struggled in many areas but has shined as a deep passer, particularly this year. Fields' deep accuracy and expected points added (EPA) output throwing deep have been among the very best in the NFL.

• This matchup sets up well for Fields to be throwing often and to have some success downfield. Teams have passed over expected nearly 5% of the time against the Lions, a top-five rate in the NFL. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have faced the second-deepest average target depth and have allowed explosive plays at a top-five rate.

If past games are any indication, D.J. Moore figures to be Fields' main target and the beneficiary of some deep passes. But if Fields is to fly over his alt prop, it will likely also require another deep catch or two, and Darnell Mooney has played the key downfield role.

PointsBet SGP Build: 110-1

Story: Los Angeles Rams Lean on Puka Nacua in a win over the Seattle Seahawks

In this week's matchups column, we wrote about wanting to buy Stafford in matchups where he has the situational advantage, which is what he should have against a struggling Seahawks pass rush.

We can further lean into that story by looking into buying some of Stafford's pass-catchers, who will play a key role should Stafford have the day we expect.

The Seahawks have played man coverage at the third-lowest rate in the league, which should mean plenty of zone coverage in Week 11.

Cooper Kupp and Nacua have been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL against zone coverage. But Nacua has dominated the target share against zone, earning targets at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1

Story: Cleveland Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a solid day and secures the win 

The market is pricing Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s passing props at a remarkably low 161 yards despite massive uncertainty. After all, he's made only one career start.

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The Browns' rookie quarterback will have a matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in both the percentage of drives that allow an explosive play and explosive pass play rate allowed, making this a sneaky spot and leaving ample room for the Browns to rack up yardage against this defense.

The Browns defense sits atop the league in nearly every defensive efficiency metric, while the Steelers offense is near the bottom in every offensive metric. The Browns defense figures to generate plenty of stops for their offense, increasing Thompson-Robinson’s time on the field.

Quarterback passing and rushing yards are generally not correlated, but in this spot, with the prices so low, there is ample volume for Thompson-Robinson to fly past his alt passing props as well as his rushing ones if he has even an average NFL performance.

PointsBet SGP Build: 80-1
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