NFL Week 10 Betting: Best early bets before lines move

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Week 9 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 10. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.

New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) [Total: 48.5]

Best Bet: Over 48.5

Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield are dealing in the midst of an MVP race. Each has made a strong case up to this point, so adding a key win against another candidate would be a promising narrative addition.

The Patriots continue to produce dominant showings through the air, highlighted by the second-highest passing EPA per pass play mark in the NFL. The issue continues to be their struggling secondary, which just allowed a monster game to Drake London (118 yards and three touchdowns), although the team narrowly escaped with the win. 

Fresh off their Week 9 bye, the Buccaneers are hoping to be healthier and back in form. Outside of a poor showing against the Lions in Week 7, a matchup that included a laundry list of injuries, Tampa Bay has been electric in the passing game. Without that matchup, the offense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per dropback and explosive pass play rate this season.

Both the Buccaneers‘ and Patriots‘ defenses rank below the league average in successful pass play rate allowed and yards per attempt surrendered. This matchup projects to be pass-heavy, with two pass-funnel defenses, and could lead to shootout conditions.

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5) [Total: 48.5]

Best Bet: Over 48.5

The Bears-Bengals Week 9 game certainly had its fair share of fireworks and points, but that wasn't out of the norm for a defense bleeding points and an offense that is poised to take advantage of bad defenses. 

That's exactly what the Bears will have again in Week 10, facing a Giants team that has allowed 30-plus points in three straight games. Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart, on the other side, should be fully capable of taking advantage of a Chicago defense that has been unable to stop anyone over the past few weeks. The Ravens‘ Tyler Huntley and the Bengals' Joe Flacco each put together career games against the Bears. 

This is a game script where each team can remain efficient while surpassing a total fueled by some inconsistency. The two offenses aren't consistently dominant enough to drive up the number, but they are good enough to take advantage of the poor defenses they will face this week.