NFL Week 10 Bets: Three player prop bets to consider

2RT42N6 Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) slips past Indianapolis Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard on his way to a touchdown run during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

• RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 16.5 attempts — Etienne has gone over this number in six out of eight games, most notably in a 37-17 blowout loss where the Jaguars went down 17-0 in the first half, handing him the most negative game script possible.

• WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Over 3.5 receptions — With Jordan Love feeling pressure, he should resort to finding his favorite early target in Romeo Doubs, and these other Steelers cornerbacks can definitely be thrown on.

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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Entering Week 10, we’re still navigating quarterback injuries across the league, but several starters will return to action this week. Most notably, Kyler Murray is set to make his 2023 debut for the Arizona Cardinals against the Atlanta Falcons.

Now that we're in mid-November, it’s important to keep tabs on the weather report for every game going forward. Luckily, the forecasts look tame outside of the San Francisco 49ersJacksonville Jaguars showdown.

At the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season, we sit at 8-6 for +1.45 units. Let’s dive into Week 10.

RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 16.5 attempts (-130, DraftKings)

The San Francisco 49ers defense quietly ranks 22nd in both expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed, with their 52% run-stop rate good for 26th.

The Jaguars have not run the ball efficiently on a snap-to-snap basis, ranking 29th in EPA per rush, yet they have not shied away from the run game whatsoever. Etienne has gone over this number in six out of eight games, most notably in a 37-17 blowout loss where the Jaguars went down 17-0 in the first half, handing him the most negative game script possible.

Rookie third-round running back Tank Bigsby hasn’t topped three rushing attempts since Week 1 and fumbled in Jacksonville’s last game back in Week 8. Like in that game, some showers are expected in this week’s matchup, as are winds strong enough to impact the passing game.

Further affecting Jacksonville's passing game will be a 49ers pass-rush unit that ranks third in pass-rush win rate and pressure rate when a quarterback throws the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, which is Trevor Lawrence’s modus operandi.

When Lawrence gets the ball out quickly, his preferred target is tight end Evan Engram, whose 44 receptions on passes thrown in 2.5 seconds or less is tied for seventh in the NFL. However, the 49ers defense ranks second league-wide in EPA allowed and success rate allowed on targets to tight ends, a trend that has gone back years.

The Jaguars will lean on Travis Etienne’s rushing ability here and will not abandon the pursuit, even if they don’t get off to a hot start. He should be able to cross this number independent of the game script, which could be important here, given the opponent.

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Edge Greg RousseauBuffalo Bills: Over 0.25 sacks (+160 on DraftKings)

Russell Wilson’s 23% pressure-to-sack rate is the fifth-highest in the NFL, a trend that has existed his entire career. He enters a game where the Broncos will need to score to keep up with a high-flying Buffalo Bills offense that leads the league in EPA per play and success rate and ranks fourth in the percentage of drives that have ended in a score.

Rousseau lines up on the left side of the line about two-thirds of the time, meaning he’ll mostly be matching up with right tackle Mike McGlinchey, whose 11.1% pressure rate allowed is third-worst among right tackles. Rousseau’s 15.2% pressure rate is a top-25 mark among edge defenders this season, and he’s rounding into form after playing through some injuries to start the year.

The combination of Russell Wilson holding onto the ball, potentially a game script that provides us with a high number of dropbacks, and a total mismatch for Rousseau is a recipe we like.

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WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Over 3.5 receptions (+135, DraftKings)

Doubs is quarterback Jordan Love’s go-to target when the Packers QB gets the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less, as he leads all Green Bay receivers with 33 targets in these scenarios, 10 more than any other player.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranks sixth in quick pressure rate (pressure in 2.5 seconds or less), and that is largely without interior defender Cameron Heyward, who is now back from injury.

Doubs plays on both sides but has a slight edge toward playing on the left. Steelers rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. — the best cornerback on the defense and the corner Pittsburgh lines up in press coverage far more than the rest — predominantly lines up on the left side of the defense opposite the right wide receiver.

Porter is near the top of the league in jamming wide receivers, contact within five yards, and route redirects for opposing wide receivers, often making that target a bad option early in the shot clock.

Christian Watson spends more time on the right side and will be viewed as the main threat to haul in an explosive reception. He'll not only command attention from Porter but also have to deal with a lot of contact off the line of scrimmage. With Love feeling pressure, he should resort to finding his favorite early target in Romeo Doubs, and these other Steelers cornerbacks can definitely be thrown on.

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