- Bet under 48: It will take a Brian Daboll masterclass for the New York Giants to have sustained offensive success against one of the best defenses in football. As long as the Giants also get a few stops, this game should finish well short of the current 48-game total.
- Bet Miles Sanders anytime TD: Jalen Hurts has the shortest odds, but Sanders will be the focal point on offense if the Philadelphia Eagles jump out to an early lead.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The early week test of -7 brought significant Eagles backing, so the line moved immediately back to -7.5. PFF Greenline finds value on the Giants while the play-by-play simulation aligned on a -7 victory for the Eagles.
The added hook to the touchdown spread matters in handicapping this outcome but much of the information digested seems to lean in the Eagles' direction coming off of their playoff bye week.
From a matchup standpoint, it’s tough to see the Giants finding similar success on offense to last week. Philadelphia’s cornerback situation allows it to play a heavy man coverage rate. Additionally, the Eagles' front four has numerous mismatches and could pressure Daniel Jones on every passing dropback. Last week, the Minnesota Vikings refused to put a spy on Jones because they didn’t have a good enough coverage unit to not slow down the Giants receivers. The Eagles simply can’t let Jones beat them with his legs and if they slow him down, they should be able to win this one relatively easily.
The spot that has consensus between PFF’s two betting models is under the 48-point game total, with Greenline finding 1.1% value on the under at -110. PFF’s play-by-play simulation sees a similar outcome.
The under favors the dog on a wide spread, but there are enough scenarios where Philadelphia handles New York that a spread bet seems should attacked in-game.
Pick: Total under 48 (-110; bets playable to -115)
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Saturday game.
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