- Bet Dallas Cowboys +4 (-110): Between two defenses with little separation, this game should come down to the quarterback position. Dak Prescott’s had an up-and-down two-week performance, but his top-end play is unmatched by his counterpart. Siding with the better quarterback getting points is a great way to attack playoff football betting.
- Bet Brandon Aiyuk u3.5 receptions: Aiyuk continues to see a limited target share and is mainly used as the deep threat in this offense. The secondary wide receiver position will be the spot the San Francisco 49ers need to use to take advantage of the Cowboys defense, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Trevon Diggs shadow Aiyuk in this matchup, especially due to way in which the 49ers utilize Deebo Samuel.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
This spread has bounced back and forth between 49ers -4 and -3.5, and it should stay in this range until game time. PFF Greenline leans slightly in Dallas' direction but doesn’t find enough value to recommend it as a bet.
PFF’s play-by-play simulation is overly bullish on the Cowboys, seeing them as the better team in this matchup. There hasn’t been a game in our simulation that has been more off-market than this matchup. Brock Purdy‘s previous performances are small enough to see the quarterback position as a significant advantage for Dallas. Dallas also has stronger underlying defensive metrics, which tilts enough of the advantage in the Cowboys' direction.
The point total rebounded mid-week after taking in a bunch of money on the under, which pushed it to a low 45.5 points. Both of PFF’s models lean directionally toward the under but don’t find enough value to recommend a bet unless we continue to see the number rise toward kickoff.
Pick: Cowboys +4, -110 (PointsBet; bets playable to -115)
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Sunday game.