- Bet Dallas Goedert u4.5 Receptions: The San Francisco 49ers rank fifth in coverage grade against tight ends, so the Philadelphia Eagles should look to attack on the outside with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
- Bet Brandon Aiyuk u3.5 Receptions: The aDot and lack of involvement on the scripted play set show that Aiyuk is far down the 49ers' pecking order. If this game is a defensive struggle early, Aiyuk probably won't exceed his reception prop number.
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Books seem hesitant to move to the full -3 for the Eagles, instead pushing juice to the favorites side. Things will change if we do get to -3, but for now, there looks to be little value in the spread market. PFF Greenline might find value on the moneyline if its odds moves with the spread, but the play-by-play simulation provides market consensus at both of the current game offerings.
The point total might be the best opportunity for a play. The key for both teams seems to their scripted play sets, as the 49ers' opening set of offensive pass plays ranked fifth this season.
An early 49ers lead would force the Eagles into an uncomfortable situation to play from behind, but if the Eagles, who rank second in EPA allowed per scripted pass play, can get some early stops against the 49ers' opening play set, they implement their bully-ball style that has dominated opponents this year.
Either narrative points toward the under, as both defenses look undervalued in this matchup. Expect the early chop to provide value on the pregame number going under 46.5 points, providing us an opportunity to middle if either offense shows some semblance of offensive production.
Pick: U46.5 (-110, bets playable to -115)
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for this conference championship showdown.