NFL Conference Championship Player Prop Picks: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Kadarius Toney

Kansas City, Missouri, USA;Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) catches a pass against the Denver Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

• Jalen Hurts OVER 31.5 passing attempts: Typically, when the Eagles play elite run defenses, they tend to pass five percentage points over expectation.

• A.J. Brown longest reception OVER 26.5 yards: The 49ers have struggled this year on deep passing attempts, and Brown has generated more than 20 expected points added when targeted on go routes.

• Kadarius Toney OVER 3.5 receptions: The Chiefs may rely more on quick passes so as to take some pressure off their injured signal-caller, and Toney would be the primary beneficiary of that.

Estimated Reading Time: 3 mins

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Jalen Hurts over 31.5 passing attempts (-140 @ Barstool)

Game plan: Play down to 32.5 passing attempts

As seen in the chart above, the Eagles change their game plan every week depending on who they face. Typically, when they play elite run defenses, they tend to pass five percentage points over expectation. The 49ers fit this bill, ranking second in expected points added allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed.

Teams also tend to just throw on the 49ers more than the league average. Looking at the regular season alone, San Francisco faced the seventh-most pass attempts on defense, partly due to how good their run defense is and opposing offenses wanting to exploit their secondary.


A.J. Brown longest reception over 26.5 yards (-114 @ FanDuel)

Game plan: Play down to -120 odds

As seen in this chart created by PFF's Judah Fortgang, the 49ers have struggled this year on deep passing attempts, which is A.J. Brown’s specialty. This season, Brown has generated more than 20 expected points added when targeted on go routes. That’s one of the highest total EPA for any receiver targeted on a single route.

In back-to-back weeks, we’ve seen 49ers cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir get burned on go balls against CeeDee Lamb and D.K. Metcalf, and so we can expect the Eagles to test them deep, as well.


Kadarius Toney over 3.5 receptions (+102 @ FanDuel)

Game plan: Play down to -120 odds

Kadarius Toney ran 12 routes in the divisional round. He was targeted on six of those routes, which is one of the most efficient target shares of any receiver in a game this season. There is a reason that head coach Andy Reid facilitated a trade for him, and it’s for games like this where the Chiefs need him to be a dynamic playmaker and get the ball in his hands.

Amid quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury, we could see the Chiefs rely more on quick passes so as to take some pressure off their signal-caller. Toney would be the primary beneficiary of that, catching passes on swing routes or screens.


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