- Several factors make the under a good bet in Rams-Texans: Matthew Stafford's lingering back injury, a high-flying Rams defense and a Texans offense that likely won't handle pressure well make the under an enticing pick.
- The Dolphins may be headed for a rough season, but take advantage of Week 1: While Tua Tagovailoa carries a significant injury risk into 2025, he is ready to go for Week 1 and should be able to take advantage of a shaky Colts defense.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston Texans: Under 43.5 points
There are two primary angles to attack. The first is that quarterback Matthew Stafford is clearly dealing with a back injury, which may threaten his availability for Week 1. Even if Stafford plays, he has been sitting out for much of camp and will certainly show some rust. There is some compelling evidence that quarterbacks in Week 1 perform far worse with no preseason play and, by extension, a lack of training camp reps.
Now, it is fair to assume that the markets are aware of Stafford’s injury, even if perhaps discounting the effect of his missed practice time. But this market suggests that the injury is not as priced in as it should be.
Besides the Stafford injury, the Rams' defense is underrated and can cause some problems for the Texans. The team eased rookie edge rusher Jared Verse into NFL action over the first five weeks of the 2024 season before its Week 6 bye, and then Verse became a full-time player and changed the defense’s trajectory.
Pre-bye, the Rams had the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowing the highest EPA per play and the most yards per attempt. They also ranked seventh worst in quick-pressure rate and ninth worst in disruption rate. Post-bye, those numbers reversed: The Rams ranked eighth best in EPA per play, ninth best in yards per attempt and first in disruption rate (with significant improvement in quick-pressure rate).
And they will be facing a Texans team that saw the highest pressure disruption rate of any team in the NFL last season and is without stalwart left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom the front office traded to the Washington Commanders in the offseason.
Add that in with injury uncertainty on the Rams' side and a defense that can disrupt the Texans' flow, and this is an under spot I am intrigued by a month out from kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins: Dolphins moneyline
Here, we have a spot with a Dolphins team that the market seems to be very down on compared to last year.
The team's 2024 offense with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm was a top-10 passing unit from an efficiency standpoint. And betting on the Dolphins to win in Week 1 is far different than a future bet that builds in Tagovailoa's enormous injury risk. He should be fully ready to go for this Week 1 affair, and his offense is undervalued by the market, implied to score the 17th-most points against a Colts defense that, as we discussed in our AFC South preview, projects to be a bottom-tier unit.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts have questions as to who will start at quarterback between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. Neither has been particularly efficient, as you can see in the chart, and their lack of passing success renders them unlikely to fully take advantage of a Dolphins secondary that projects as one of the worst units in the NFL.
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