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NFL Betting 2023: Four season-long player props worth locking in now

2MAK21D Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) warms up before an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Inglewood, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

• Bet Justin Herbert to surpass 29.5 passing TDs: A change at offensive coordinator should have the Chargers quarterback slinging the ball downfield with regularity.

• Maintain high expectations for Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Detroit Lions wideout is set to thrive over the middle of the field within an offense on the most upward of trajectories. Bet him to lead the league in receptions.

• Expect Josh Allen to go over 7.75 sacks: His underlying metrics suggest positive sack regression is on its way in 2023.

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

More and more markets are starting to pop up across the NFL sportsbook ecosystem, and there’s now an expansive offering of season-long player props to take advantage of in many different ways. We identified five of our favorite plays to this point.

Editor's Note: All odds and bets below are sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook

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Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert over 29.5 passing TDs (-110)

There’s a lengthy list of reasons to be bullish on Justin Herbert’s passing touchdown total in 2023. First, the addition of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston brings another weapon to a unit that now boasts the depth to potentially survive a horrible rash of injuries like the team experienced in 2022. If the Chargers get some positive injury luck, Herbert has four legitimate wide receivers to throw to.

Second, the change at offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore has been a major storyline all offseason. Herbert’s career touchdown percentage through his first three seasons is 4.8%, which ranks 65th all time and is well below what you’d expect for a gunslinging quarterback in the modern era. The stat is reflective of the fact that the Chargers' offense under Lombardi did not aim to throw the ball downfield with regularity.


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