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NFL Betting 2023: Data-driven tackle and sack props for NFL's conference championship playoffs

Philadelphia Eagles linebacker T.J. Edwards (57) breaks up a pass intended for Tennessee Titans wide receiver Robert Woods (2) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Philadelphia, Pa. Nfl Tennessee Titans At Philadelphia Eagles

  • T.J. Edwards bounce-back: After a quiet week last week, a top-five tackler in the league draws a much better matchup this week.
  • Mike Hilton’s usage: A pattern in how Hilton is deployed should limit his opportunities this week, making him an under target.
  • Sack of the week: The most favorable line for a sack this week comes from Sam Hubbard against the Kansas City Chiefs‘ right tackle.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The NFL playoffs provide plenty of opportunity for bettors to focus on the key matchups and accompanying prop bets. The often-overlooked defensive props are no different, and with some key data points to look at, there is an advantage to be had for those looking to make some money this weekend.

Bet: T.J. Edwards over 9.5 total tackles (2.05 on BETMGM)

Ideal opponent: The San Francisco 49ers rank 11th in tackles allowed to the linebacker position per game (18.5), which gives Edwards a great bounce-back spot after a four-tackle game against the New York Giants last week — who rank 30th in that category. San Francisco is also among the most run-heavy offenses in the league at 29.9 attempts per game (ninth), which is a great way to boost Edwards’ efficiency in his full-time role.

Tackling strength: Edwards finished with the fifth-most tackles in the NFL during the regular season (159), which was buoyed by the fact that he finished fifth in tackles versus expected for his position with 18.3 over expected. He has hit or exceeded double-digit tackles nine times this season and should have a shot to do so again against a run-heavy, linebacker-friendly opponent this weekend.

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