• Bet the Atlanta Falcons (-1.5): This is an excellent opportunity to get closing-line value before the Steelers potentially shift the spread across key numbers after they play Monday.
• Take the Seattle Seahawks (-4.5): The Los Angeles Rams' injuries, among other clear issues, give the Seahawks a clear edge in this one.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated Reading Time: 5 mins
Editor's Note: Betting lines are accurate as of post-Sunday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Why to bet:
• The Falcons rank 15th in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, compared to the Steelers at 27th. And on defense, the Falcons are 31st, while the Steelers place 21st. Pittsburgh will be coming off short rest following a Monday night matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, and Falcons top cornerback A.J. Terrell will likely be able to neutralize Diontae Johnson or George Pickens on the outside.
• Betting Atlanta early in the week before this spread potentially reaches or crosses a key number of 3 following the Steelers' performance on Monday presents a quality closing-line value opportunity. The Steelers rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed, enabling Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota to be efficient enough through the air to balance out their run-heavy offense. This spread seems like an overreaction to Atlanta's poor showing against a surging Washington Commanders team, a game the Falcons could have won late if not for a tipped ball interception in the end zone.
Why to be wary:
• Atlanta started its fifth different left guard in as many weeks, with Colby Gossett stepping in for Chuma Edoga. Steelers interior defender Cam Heyward is still a top-five player at his position in PFF grade on the season, and he could wreak havoc on Atlanta’s interior offensive line. However, Gossett was the only Falcons offensive lineman to allow a quarterback pressure in Week 12 against a strong Commanders defensive front, and perhaps he is back on the bench for Week 13.