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NFL Betting 2022: Week 11 spread picks to bet before lines move

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) celebrates with tight end Trevon Wesco (88) and wide receiver Byron Pringle (13) after he scores a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

• Take the Chicago Bears (+3): Chicago has played well as of late yet finds itself a three-point underdog to the struggling Atlanta Falcons in Week 11.

• Go back to the well with the Eagles‘ first-half spread: Ahead of Monday Night Football this week, Philadelphia remains the best first-half team in football.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 mins

Editor's Note: Betting lines are accurate as of post-Sunday Night Football.

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Why to bet:

Since reshaping their offense following a mini-bye in Week 6, the Bears rank seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play and first in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, the Falcons place 31st in EPA per rush allowed on the season, fresh off getting trampled over by Panthers running back D’Onta Foreman to the tune of 130 yards on Thursday Night. Atlanta hasn’t faced a mobile quarterback in the same stratosphere as Fields yet this season, and Fields has also made strides as a passer over the past month that at least put him on par with Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota

Falcons star cornerback A.J. Terrell did not practice all week with a hamstring injury leading up to his team's Week 10 game against Carolina, and we’ve seen players across the league either miss significant time this season with hamstring issues or reaggravate the injury after returning too quickly. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is still slowly being worked into this Bears offense, but Chicago finally has its full group of pass-catchers with slot receiver Byron Pringle also back for Week 10. 

Why to be wary:

The Bears are similarly bad against the run, ranking 27th in EPA per rush allowed on the season — and getting noticeably worse since trading linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens. Another legitimate reason for concern is that Atlanta may use its mini-bye to finally make the switch to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback, who would figure to utilize sophomore tight end Kyle Pitts and rookie wide receiver Drake London far more than Mariota has thus far. Finally, the general manager who drafted Fields in Chicago — Ryan Pace — now works for Atlanta and may have as good a scouting report on his strengths and weaknesses as anyone. 

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