We are somehow staring down at the last Monday Night Football matchup of the 2020 season, and what a wild ride it has been. At this point, most of the betting opportunities have become stale, but NFL player props continue to provide a much-needed source of entertainment for fantasy players.
Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. There wasn’t a strong lean for full-game totals in Week 16, as seven of the 15 games played so far went over their posted number. Meanwhile, player props have the smallest of leans to the over, which would be only the third week of the season that they have finished with a majority on this side in 2020. We have seen more weeks finish close to the 50/50 split, which shows how efficient the pricing has become in the prop market.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 52.94% for the season. The majority of prop categories lean toward the under, but we aren’t seeing as extreme a preference as we had during the middle of the season.
At a macro level, it appears as though passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.
After a brief hiatus for the holidays, Week 16 has started somewhat slow, with a 2-1 finish to the Sunday slate. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 80-53-1 for +21.95 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Buffalo has jumped into the third spot in our Elo rankings, with both their offensive and defensive units in the top 10 of our opponent-adjusted rankings.
No one seems to be willing to touch the Patriots, as the spread has quickly pushed from an opening of 4.5 to 7. At this point, 82% of the cash and 62% of the tickets are on the Bills, whose only incentive is seeding from now on. Few could have predicted that the AFC East would be locked up before this Week 16 matchup, but a changing of the guard has already occurred.